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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IL/NERN TO SWRN MO/SERN KS/NERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348...349...
VALID 080825Z - 080930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
348...349...CONTINUES.
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN VALID PORTIONS OF WW/S 348
AND 349.
ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS HAVE INDICATED AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND
WITH STORM INTENSITIES ACROSS WW/S 348 AND 349...FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT TSTMS SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. THIS
ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN LATEST COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NERN OK/SERN
KS AND NWRN MO. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS NERN OK/SERN KS
AND FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI WILL SUPPORT THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TSTM ACTIVITY.
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST FROM NERN OK/SERN KS
THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO WRN/NRN IL...RECENT TRENDS IN
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.
..PETERS.. 06/08/2009
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35849737 37089661 38339542 38889473 39699426 39859339
40499320 40609214 41029204 41399101 41409032 40709024
39919059 39419120 38739247 37959316 37299423 36969482
35849737
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