Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 985
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 985 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL OHIO INTO WRN PENNSYLVANIA AND SWRN
   NEW YORK STATE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121652Z - 121845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
   ADJACENT UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  A SEVERE
   WEATHER WATCH PROBABLY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...AREA OF ONGOING SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA APPEARS
   TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A WEAK
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT
   THIS FORCING MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN...BUT INHIBITION FOR THE SEASONABLY
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE WITH CONTINUING STRONG
   INSOLATION...ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT STORM
   INTENSIFICATION.

   EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-40 KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...STRONGEST
   NEAR/NORTH OF THE LATITUDES OF LAKE ERIE...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
   SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND INTENSIFICATION
   THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHWEST OHIO MAY BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LAKE
   BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE
   DURING THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME... PERHAPS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
   CLEVELAND METROPOLITAN AREA.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41708332 42108011 40798004 40008235 39558411 40268443
               41218411 41708332 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 12, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities