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Mesoscale Discussion 985
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB...WRN OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132015Z - 132115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH AN
   ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUST THREAT...APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS ERN CO. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED CU FIELD
   COINCIDING WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE AND DEEPENING LEE SFC LOW
   ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM LHX SWWD TO TAD. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF TOWERING
   CU WAS NOTED NEAR AKO. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
   AREA...AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE WEAK CINH AND SUPPORT
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. AS THIS
   OCCURS...TSTMS WILL PROGRESS IN A GENERAL EWD OR SEWD DIRECTION INTO
   A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
   VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER/. DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KT PER RAP
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/...BUT SHOULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
   FOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS. TSTM COVERAGE REMAINS THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE
   LIMITING FACTOR...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41190305 41290237 41120151 40390128 38700091 36960103
               36570160 36700228 37050312 37060394 37230461 37980419
               38480347 39850344 40280386 40820385 41140315 41190305 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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