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Mesoscale Discussion 985
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0985
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0551 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

   Areas affected...central and eastern parts of MN...west-central and
   northwest WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 111051Z - 111215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe bow echo will likely move east of WW 311 and
   reach the Minneapolis/Saint Paul metro around 9AM CDT.  Corridors of
   50-70 mph gusts will yield scattered wind damage.  A new severe
   thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 7AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a maturing bow echo moving east
   around 45 kt across eastern SD with a well-developed comma head and
   rear inflow channel.  Very high echo tops (55k ft) associated with
   the updrafts within the line indicate ample buoyancy and a
   considerable amount of hydrometers suspended aloft which will
   translate to severe gusts via 1) momentum transport 2) water
   loading, and 3) evaporative cooling---which should enable stronger
   downdrafts to punch higher momentum flow to the surface in the form
   of 50-70 mph gusts.  It seems the concentration of wind
   damage/severe gusts may preferentially favor the western half of the
   discussion area as less moisture-rich air infiltrates western WI
   prior to squall line passage.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45509509 45879279 45749065 44409074 43979468 45509509 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2017
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