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Mesoscale Discussion 986
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0986
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

   Areas affected...East central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

   Valid 111430Z - 111530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and hail will persist across
   eastern Minnesota and across much of Wisconsin. An additional watch
   will be required for the remainder of the Enhanced Risk area.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived severe bow echo continues eastward across
   MN with apex now crossing the MS river. The MCS trails southwestward
   into south-central MN as well, where eastward motion is slower.

   A warm front currently extends from the MSP area eastward across
   central WI. This boundary will continue to lift northward throughout
   the day, with an increasingly moist and unstable air mass spreading
   northward ahead of the MCS. Meanwhile, shear profiles in the low
   levels will also increase due to 30-40 kt 850 mb flow.

   A damaging wind risk will continue with the bow apex, even though it
   may remain slightly north of the surface warm front, traveling
   east-northeastward across northern WI. The slower southern portion
   of the line may eventually re-organize into a more severe segment as
   instability and inflow both increase later today. Damaging winds and
   hail should continue to the be main risks with the MCS. If isolated
   cells can develop along the warm front, a tornado risk would exist.
   More likely, the intersection of the MCS/outflow and warm front will
   pose the greatest tornado threat in QLCS fashion.

   ..Jewell.. 06/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45769288 46448890 46198816 45718764 45248753 44738763
               44388791 44008902 43629062 43689235 43859302 44179353
               44869361 45329344 45769288 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2017
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