|Mesoscale Discussion 986|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017
Areas affected...East central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...
Valid 111430Z - 111530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and hail will persist across
eastern Minnesota and across much of Wisconsin. An additional watch
will be required for the remainder of the Enhanced Risk area.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived severe bow echo continues eastward across
MN with apex now crossing the MS river. The MCS trails southwestward
into south-central MN as well, where eastward motion is slower.
A warm front currently extends from the MSP area eastward across
central WI. This boundary will continue to lift northward throughout
the day, with an increasingly moist and unstable air mass spreading
northward ahead of the MCS. Meanwhile, shear profiles in the low
levels will also increase due to 30-40 kt 850 mb flow.
A damaging wind risk will continue with the bow apex, even though it
may remain slightly north of the surface warm front, traveling
east-northeastward across northern WI. The slower southern portion
of the line may eventually re-organize into a more severe segment as
instability and inflow both increase later today. Damaging winds and
hail should continue to the be main risks with the MCS. If isolated
cells can develop along the warm front, a tornado risk would exist.
More likely, the intersection of the MCS/outflow and warm front will
pose the greatest tornado threat in QLCS fashion.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 45769288 46448890 46198816 45718764 45248753 44738763
44388791 44008902 43629062 43689235 43859302 44179353
44869361 45329344 45769288
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