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Mesoscale Discussion 986
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132209Z - 132315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LENDS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF
   SWELLING CU ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE
   INLAND PENETRATION OF THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE LOWER TX
   COASTAL PLAIN.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED MARKEDLY
   DURING THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER MCMULLEN COUNTY.  LARGE DIRECTIONAL
   VEERING FROM ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO 60 KT NWLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW
   WILL SUPPORT SLOW-MOVING MULTICELLULAR AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG
   INTERMITTENT UPDRAFT PULSES AND THE PROPENSITY FOR LARGE TO PERHAPS
   VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  ISOLATED STRONG TO
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS VIA WATER
   LOADING PROCESSES.  THE LONGEVITY/COVERAGE OF STORMS CASTS
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEED FOR A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   27769813 28189919 29009988 29779993 30039961 29939902
               29209854 28679772 28369733 27769813 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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