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Mesoscale Discussion 987
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN PENNSYLVANIA...ERN WV
   PANHANDLE...NRN VIRGINIA...CNTRL MARYLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121803Z - 121930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS AREAS OF PENNSYLVANIA TO THE EAST OF
   THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA.
   SOME OF THESE MAY AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...BUT THE NEED FOR
   A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
   WEAK...OR IS AT LEAST UNCLEAR...BUT THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED
   STORMS HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES ALLEGHENY
   FRONT...IN THE PRESENCE OF A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  CONVECTION
   ALSO APPEARS TO BE INITIATING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE
   RIDGE.  WEAK TO MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW /20
   TO 30 KT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TO THE SOUTH/
   SHOULD AID PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
   EASTWARD INTO THE SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEW
   POINTS AROUND 70F/ WITH MODERATELY LARGE CAPE NOW PRESENT ACROSS
   MUCH OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED SUSTAINED...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  SOME OF
   THESE MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   SOME HAIL.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40507771 41087739 41407702 41527613 41157551 40167617
               39217667 38607738 38537826 39247850 40507771 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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