MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 AM CDT FRI JUN 07 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...SERN VA.

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 285...

   VALID 071235Z - 071400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 285 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITHIN MOST OF INITIAL WW
   AREA...BUT WILL DIMINISH FROM SW-NE WITH TIME AS CENTER OF TS ANDREA
   AND RELATED DRYING/LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION MOVE CLOSER.  AS
   SUCH...WW MAY BE CLEARED INCREMENTALLY FROM SW-NE WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM NEAR
   CENTER OF ANDREA...ACROSS EYF...DPL AND OCW AREAS THEN ENEWD OFF NRN
   OUTER BANKS.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS NERN NC AND
   PORTIONS SERN VA THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN MAXIMIZED ALONG AND N OF FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY
   BACKED...WHILE BUOYANCY IS MOST FAVORABLE OVER WARM SECTOR AND
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE.  BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP REGION
   WILL HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO TIGHTEN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION
   AND PRODUCE TORNADOES.  COMBINATION OF THETAE ADVECTION AND LIMITED
   DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD PERMIT 250-500 J/KG MLCAPE TO DEVELOP IN
   POCKETS ALONG AND S OF FRONT.

   CONVECTION WELL INLAND OVER ERN NC...THAT PREVIOUSLY CONTAINED
   OCCASIONAL MINI-SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR COUPLETS CLOSE TO WARM
   FRONT...HAS OUTRUN THAT FRONT AND MOVED INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS. 
   HOWEVER...ACTIVITY FARTHER E...ACROSS MAINLAND DARE/HYDE
   COUNTIES...ADJACENT SOUNDS...AND OUTER BANKS...WILL REMAIN OVER
   SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS.  FARTHER SW...SRN-MOST PORTIONS
   OF NC CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN WEAKER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN
   OUTER BANKS/PAMLICO SOUND REGION...PER ILM VWP...THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL
   WIND ASYMMETRIES ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION. 
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEFORE CENTER OF ANDREA
   PASSES W OF THAT AREA...THOUGH HODOGRAPHS MAY ENLARGE WITH VEERED
   WINDS ABOVE SFC ONCE CENTER PASSES NW-N.  BY THEN...HOWEVER...PRIND
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LOW IN THAT SECTOR.

   SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS REGARDING POST-TROPICAL
   TRANSITION OF ANDREA AND REMAINING TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

   ..EDWARDS.. 06/07/2013


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34457747 34557820 35287819 36827738 37437613 37567557
               37087586 37037593 36957597 36157571 35597542 35107552
               35227557 35117590 34737641 34497658 34657655 34667701
               34497736 34457747