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Mesoscale Discussion 988
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NM...WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 121844Z - 122045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND REPORTS...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WW
   ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF
   DEVELOPING CU/TOWERING CU...ONE ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE BOUNDARY
   OVER FAR SERN NM...AND ANOTHER OVER THE DAVIS MTNS. WITH CONTINUED
   STRONG INSOLATION...TEMPS WILL FURTHER RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
   TO LOWER 90S. COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /E.G. MEAN
   MIXING RATIOS AROUND 12-15 G PER KG/...SUCH HEATING SHOULD YIELD
   MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG...AS THE REGION IS SURMOUNTED BY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FURTHERMORE...THIS AMPLE INSOLATION AND
   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PERTURBATION TO THE NORTH SHOULD FURTHER
   ERODE ANY REMAINING CINH...ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...LIKELY FIRST OVER THE
   DAVIS MTNS AND THEN SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY INITIATION FARTHER NORTH.

   WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND APPROX 35 KTS
   OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR DUE TO RELATIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW...THE
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL
   IN ANY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   IS MODEST...VEERING PROFILES /EVIDENT IN KLBB VWP/ AND SUFFICIENT
   MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD A THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES. STORMS WILL
   LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FEW E/SEWD-PROGRESSING COMPLEXES BY
   MID/LATE EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG
   WINDS.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   30430392 31390340 34450318 34470222 33750138 31680145
               30450190 30070235 29920320 30130379 30430392 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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