|Mesoscale Discussion 989|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0989
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017
Areas affected...North Central CO...Southeast WY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 112049Z - 112315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon along the front range and foothills of north-central CO
and southeast WY. The strongest cells may produce large hail. A
watch may be considered.
DISCUSSION...Water vapor loop shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving across NM and western CO. Mid to high level lift in advance
of this feature is spreading across the Rockies and is approaching
the front range region. Meanwhile, northerly post-frontal surface
winds over much of eastern CO have maintained near-50 dewpoints
across the region. Forecast soundings modified for observed
conditions suggest over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and only a weak cap
along the foothills and adjacent plains. Vertical shear is also
moderately strong, with effective shear values of 35-45 knots.
Present indications are that scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will form over the foothills this afternoon and spread
into the adjacent counties of CO. A few of the storms may become
supercellular with large hail being a concern. Consensus of CAM
solutions suggests that coverage of severe storms may be quite
sparse. Therefore it is uncertain whether a watch will be needed
for this scenario.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39080532 40140540 41310578 41760578 41860501 41310424
39650394 38880440 39080532
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