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Mesoscale Discussion 989
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0989
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

   Areas affected...North Central CO...Southeast WY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112049Z - 112315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this
   afternoon along the front range and foothills of north-central CO
   and southeast WY.  The strongest cells may produce large hail.  A
   watch may be considered.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor loop shows a mid-level shortwave trough
   moving across NM and western CO.  Mid to high level lift in advance
   of this feature is spreading across the Rockies and is approaching
   the front range region.  Meanwhile, northerly post-frontal surface
   winds over much of eastern CO have maintained near-50 dewpoints
   across the region.  Forecast soundings modified for observed
   conditions suggest over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and only a weak cap
   along the foothills and adjacent plains.  Vertical shear is also
   moderately strong, with effective shear values of 35-45 knots.  

   Present indications are that scattered showers and isolated
   thunderstorms will form over the foothills this afternoon and spread
   into the adjacent counties of CO.  A few of the storms may become
   supercellular with large hail being a concern.  Consensus of CAM
   solutions suggests that coverage of severe storms may be quite
   sparse.  Therefore it is uncertain whether a watch will be needed
   for this scenario.

   ..Hart/Bunting.. 06/11/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39080532 40140540 41310578 41760578 41860501 41310424
               39650394 38880440 39080532 

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