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Mesoscale Discussion 991
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122052Z - 122215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT AND/OR
   DAMAGING WIND GUST EXISTS OVER THE AREA...BUT THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
   EXTENT OF THE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS SUCH...WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 1-2
   HOURS ACROSS SERN KS...IN RESPONSE TO SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AN
   EWD-PROGRESSING COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK FORCING
   FOR ASCENT FROM A PASSING IMPULSE /EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP DATA/.
   AMPLE INSOLATION AND MOISTURE /E.G. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID
   70S/ HAVE FOSTERED MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   AREA. WHILE EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SOME
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS LIKELY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION
   WITHIN MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK KINEMATICS AND THE LIMITED NATURE
   OF THE THREAT...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND REPORT REMAINS
   POSSIBLE.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36269642 36709622 37619518 38109458 38449417 38669376
               38479331 37829299 37449304 36999351 36389475 35889567
               35989625 36269642 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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