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Mesoscale Discussion 991
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0991
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

   Areas affected...North-central and northeastern WI...and
   south-central Upper MI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315...

   Valid 120239Z - 120445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for damaging winds and hail persists across
   north-central into northeast WI, and in south-central Upper MI this
   evening.  Additional strong to severe storms were developing across
   west-central WI (in the wake of the outflow attendant to the
   north-central and northeast WI storms) and should pose primarily a
   hail threat with the stronger updrafts.  Thus, western parts of WW
   315 should not be canceled from this watch until these more recent
   storms advance to the east.

   DISCUSSION...Particular concern in the short-term consists of a
   damaging wind threat with bowing lines of storms advancing eastward
   from southern Forest to northern Marathon Counties WI (per regional
   radar imagery).  Recent trends indicated these bows were moving to
   the east at 45-50 kt, and should reach Menominee County MI after
   03Z, and Oconto/Marinette Counties WI between 03-04Z.  The damaging
   wind threat should eventually decrease as the boundary layer
   stabilizes/surface-based inhibition strengthens with the continued
   trend of cooling surface temperatures.  However, in the short term
   (until 03Z), the present forward speed of 45-50 kt may tend to
   offset the near-surface stabilization for a continued damaging-wind
   threat.

   Otherwise, the presence of strong warm-air advection per a 40-45 kt
   south-southwesterly low-level jet into the ongoing complex of storms
   in central WI to central Upper MI should sustain thunderstorm
   development into the overnight.  Moderate instability and the
   available effective shear suggests hail will become the predominant
   severe threat once the damaging wind risk diminishes later this
   evening.

   ..Peters.. 06/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44588877 44409065 44219122 44419180 44899157 45429087
               45848956 46268769 46158637 45528653 44738724 44568782
               44588877 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2017
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