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Mesoscale Discussion 991
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW/CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141214Z - 141415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING WITH
   ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING E/NE FROM SW INTO CNTRL SD.

   DISCUSSION...FAST-MOVING CELL NOW JUST SE OF RAPID CITY HAS HAD
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL PER WDSS-II
   HAIL ALGORITHMS. THIS STORM ALONG WITH A FEW OTHER CELLS SHOULD
   CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING WITHIN A ZONE OF 700-600 MB FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN
   ROCKIES.  ALTHOUGH MODIFIED 12Z RAP RAOB SUGGESTS MUCAPE ONLY AROUND
   500 J/KG...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD LIE ON THE GRADIENT OF THE STOUT
   EML PLUME AND VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 9 DEG C/KM
   SAMPLED IN THE 12Z LBF RAOB. WITH 30-40 KT SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43920314 44700202 45110081 45229997 45179938 44719894
               44289873 43859930 43600044 43470132 43510229 43570289
               43920314 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2014
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