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Mesoscale Discussion 992
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF CNTRL AND ERN NY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 292...

   VALID 122222Z - 122345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 292 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS CONTINUES ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA.  A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
   OF WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD ONGOING STORMS MAINTAIN
   THEIR INTENSITY.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 22Z RADAR MOSAIC DATA INDICATED A SHORT LINE
   SEGMENT OVER HERKIMER AND ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH A MORE DISCRETE STORM
   OVER NRN OTSEGO COUNTY WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING THESE STORMS ALONG
   THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH BY ABOUT 0030Z. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM
   LINE SEGMENT FEATURING LEWP STRUCTURES WAS JUST ENTERING THE WRN
   EDGE OF THE WATCH FROM SENECA TO TO STEUBEN COUNTIES.  MOVEMENT OF
   BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION WAS EAST AT 30-40 KT.

   CURRENT RAP-DERIVED THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE WARM
   SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.  MOREOVER...THESE DATA AND
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
   LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RESIDES FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY
   INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
   RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH THE OTSEGO
   COUNTY STORM SHOULD IT MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
   DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
   WITH THE MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES AS THEY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREA.

   ..MEAD.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42377777 43277691 43427611 43787555 44157525 44177399
               43937384 43997325 43607286 42427287 41717318 41277361
               41507452 41677474 41827552 41907679 41947764 42027789
               42377777 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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