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Mesoscale Discussion 992
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0992
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

   Areas affected...North-central and northeast WI into southern Upper

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315...

   Valid 120459Z - 120630Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315

   SUMMARY...Hail cannot be ruled out with any of the remaining
   stronger storms across the north-central and northeast WI into
   south-central Upper MI portions of WW 315.  However, recent trends
   in radar imagery suggest the overall severe-weather threat should
   diminish overnight and this watch could be canceled prior to the 08Z

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery and surface observations showed an
   outflow boundary, attendant to storms that are now moving eastward
   through far northern Lake Michigan, extended southwest through
   southern Door County to northern Waupaca County to southern Marathon
   County.  A veered/southwesterly 40-45 kt low-level jet extending
   into north-central and northeast WI overnight will maintain a
   warm-air advection regime to support additional thunderstorms, given
   the presence of moderate elevated instability.  Given most of the
   storms are elevated north of the convective outflow boundary and
   surface-based inhibition has strengthened through the evening, the
   damaging-wind threat is greatly reduced, while hail could still
   occur with any remaining stronger updrafts.  However, this latter
   potential is also diminishing as indicated by recent weakening
   trends in MRMS MESH data.

   ..Peters.. 06/12/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44649048 45588928 45938840 45878734 45798663 45338671
               44658740 44608831 44649048 

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