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Mesoscale Discussion 992
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141624Z - 141800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR AT LEAST THE NEAR
   TERM.  SEVERE RISK BEYOND 18-19Z IS MORE UNCLEAR...AND IT IS NOT YET
   CERTAIN THAT A WATCH IS NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION TO
   THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
   TO ANOTHER WAVE OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ACCOMPANYING A
   SMALL-SCALE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM UPPER TROUGHING NOW OVER THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES.  THIS PROBABLY OCCURRED AS IT
   ENCOUNTERED A BETTER INFLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SUPPORTING
   GREATER CAPE THAN EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM RAPID CITY/...ON
   THE NOSE OF VERY WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   AIR PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  IT
   APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY MAY MAINTAIN STRENGTH OR EVEN INTENSIFY
   FURTHER AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS
   INCLUDING THE PIERRE/WINNER AND CHAMBERLAIN AREAS BY 18-19Z...BEFORE
   WEAKENING ONCE AGAIN WITH INFLOW OF MORE STABLE AIR FARTHER EAST
   INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE ROOTED
   ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SEVERE
   POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 06/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43810163 44030114 44539966 44129892 43479969 43070091
               43350153 43810163 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2014
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