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Mesoscale Discussion 994
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0994
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

   Areas affected...eastern Idaho...northwestern Wyoming...southwestern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121723Z - 122000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe hail and gusty winds will be
   possible with thunderstorms this afternoon across eastern Idaho
   initially, then spreading northward and eastward into adjacent
   portions of Montana and Wyoming.  Trends will continue to be
   monitored for the necessity of a severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent ahead of the closed upper-level low
   over northeastern Nevada has encouraged early thunderstorm
   initiation over portions of eastern Idaho this morning.  Diurnal
   heating in cloud-free areas to the north and east of these initial
   thunderstorms will allow for destabilization with MLCAPE values
   approaching 1000 J/kg later this afternoon.  Given effective bulk
   shear values around 40 knots, organized and sustained updrafts will
   be possible in the strongest storms resulting in a risk of severe
   hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm intensity and coverage trends
   will continue to be monitored into the afternoon hours for the
   possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Jirak/Hart.. 06/12/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43461223 43921256 44411292 45151359 45861371 46321222
               46341074 46120906 45780856 45210864 44390929 43780984
               43091068 43091146 43461223 

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