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Mesoscale Discussion 994
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN PA/NRN WV/SRN...WRN AND PART OF NRN OH/

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290...291...

   VALID 122253Z - 130030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   290...291...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS/ PERSISTS
   ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA /WITHIN VALID PORTIONS OF WW 290 AND
   291/...WHILE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL PA MAY NEED TO BE
   INCLUDED IN WW 291 AS THE STORMS ADVANCE QUICKLY EWD.  MEANWHILE...A
   THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WRN AND NWRN OH AS STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE WRN PART OF WW 290 FROM INDIANA. 
   PORTIONS OF NERN OH AND WRN NY WITHIN WW 290 AND 291...RESPECTIVELY
   HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THESE WATCHES...GIVEN A STABILIZED
   ENVIRONMENT DUE TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.

   DISCUSSION...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A
   COLD FRONT MOVING E/SE OF ONTARIO AND SRN LOWER MI.  MEANWHILE...AT
   2230Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE BROKEN BAND OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONSISTING OF PRIMARILY LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS
   FROM WRN NY /JUST EAST OF THE WFO-BUF COUNTY WARNING AREA/ SWWD
   THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TO SWRN PA AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OH.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BAND OF STORMS REMAINED MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE...WITH STRONGEST WLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER NRN PA
   INTO NY...WHILE WLY WIND SPEEDS DECREASED WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SRN
   PA/OH AND WV.  THIS VARIABILITY IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS
   SPEEDS IS EVIDENT IN THE FORWARD SPEEDS OF INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS
   WITH THE FASTER STORM MOTIONS /40-45 KT/ PRESENT FROM NORTH OF THE
   PITTSBURGH METRO AREA INTO NY...WHILE STORMS FROM PITTSBURGH AREA
   SSWWD WERE MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30-35 KT.

   ASIDE FROM ANY REMAINING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
   AND SERN OH...THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN INTO THE NWRN
   QUARTER OF OH HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF STORMS EARLIER THIS
   AFTERNOON GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. 
   STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN INDIANA
   AND/OR ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WRN
   AND NWRN OH /PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KNOX TO ERIE COUNTIES OH/
   THROUGH 01-02Z.

   ..PETERS.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   42087781 42107681 41487668 40837775 40417854 39357927
               38967936 39388079 39368179 39168302 39088446 39268501
               39938525 40928457 41628370 41808299 41708236 40688207
               40048206 39988124 40728004 41247943 41787845 42087781 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2015
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