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Mesoscale Discussion 995
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE COLORADO INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 142006Z - 142200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCLEAR

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
   STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   FRONT RANGE...AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EAST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING
   TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...AND COULD SUPPORT AT
   LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME
   FRAME.  

   FARTHER EAST...ACROSS THE AKRON INTO LIMON AREA...MODELS SUGGEST
   THAT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE NORTHERLY
   COMPONENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION AS
   MID/UPPER FORCING SPREADS EASTWARD REMAINS UNCLEAR.  SEVERE STORM
   POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   DEVELOPS DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS...TOWARD THE MCCOOK AREA...WHERE
   BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
   BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIVE.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
   CLOSER...OR SHORTLY AFTER...00Z.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 06/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40690383 40630244 41220030 40599988 39390081 39080305
               39680423 40690383 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2014
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