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Mesoscale Discussion 996
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PERMIAN BASIN /
   TX CAPROCK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142243Z - 150015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
   YIELD SEVERAL INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
   MICROBURSTS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE AND THE ROBUSTNESS OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT ARE IN
   QUESTION.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DUAL DRYLINE STRUCTURE
   EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FARTHER E NEAR
   THE CAPROCK INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY.  ATTEMPTS AT
   SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED INVOF THE WRN MOISTURE
   DISCONTINUITY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  THE
   WRN PERIPHERY OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES FROM A SCURRY TO
   IRION COUNTY LINE WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S.  ALTHOUGH
   UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LARGELY DISPLACED FROM THE REGION...AN
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
   PLAINS LLJ THIS EVENING MAY PROVIDE THE NEEDED IMPETUS FOR
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FARTHER E
   NEAR THE CAPROCK AND THE AREA W OF SAN ANGELO...ANY SEVERE THREAT
   WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED AND PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29860196 30160273 31700293 32800288 33280148 33110082
               32400044 30370064 29790123 29860196 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2014
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