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Mesoscale Discussion 996
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0996
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Minnesota and northern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316...

   Valid 121922Z - 122115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail will
   continue across the watch area. With time, the risk for damaging
   winds in particular may develop east of the current watch area.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of severe storms was
   located over southeast Minnesota at 1915z, with a recent history of
   measured severe gusts and radar indications of marginally severe
   hail. The storms have been moving northeast near and just north of a
   quasi-stationary surface boundary which extends east across portions
   of southern/central Wisconsin. An increase in stratiform
   precipitation to the west of the cluster suggests that a developing
   cold pool may result in a transition to a more focused damaging wind
   risk as this convective system begins to move east along the
   instability gradient the remainder of this afternoon/early evening.
   In addition, any storm development along the boundary to the east of
   the convective system would also have severe potential given strong
   surface-based buoyancy and 35-40 kts of westerly deep-layer shear.

   Across western portions of the watch area, the aforementioned region
   of stratiform precipitation/resultant destabilization has diminished
   the severe risk.

   ..Bunting.. 06/12/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42999226 42959418 42999462 43319483 43929497 44319486
               44419451 44469347 44539258 44519210 44659127 44649050
               44429021 44099017 43819022 43459050 43099115 42999226 

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