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Mesoscale Discussion 997
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0997
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

   Areas affected...Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121929Z - 122130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected to
   develop in the next couple of hours across Maine.  The strongest
   storms will be capable of producing severe hail and damaging winds. 
   A severe thunderstorm watch is possible if coverage of severe storms
   appears sufficient.

   DISCUSSION...The focus for convective initiation is ill-defined
   across Maine this afternoon though a few west-southwest to
   east-northeast bands of towering cumulus have become apparent in
   visible satellite imagery.  The northern-most of the cloud bands,
   which may be aided by a weak mid-level impulse, across northern
   Maine extending westward into eastern Quebec appears the most likely
   to generate deep convection.  With surface dew points in the mid-60s
   F, there should be sufficient instability (MLCAPE values over 1000
   J/kg) to get organized updrafts given the more-than-sufficient
   effective bulk shear (i.e., around 50 knots).  The most likely
   severe hazards will be damaging wind gusts and severe hail. 
   Convective trends will continue to be monitored, especially the
   overall coverage of thunderstorms, regarding the need for a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   ..Jirak/Hart.. 06/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   46657004 46766941 46736846 46456795 46236776 45716776
               45496739 44946731 44686782 44656825 44666890 44686948
               44726997 44837027 44957059 45297083 45407082 45947029
               46467007 46657004 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2017
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