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Mesoscale Discussion 997
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 142322Z - 150045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN
   NEB AND NWRN KS BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
   AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   SOON.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NERN CO WAS
   MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO
   BE OBSERVED. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB SWWD
   THROUGH NWRN KS AND CNTRL CO. STORMS IN NERN CO ARE DEVELOPING
   WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME WHERE AN AXIS OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
   RESIDE OVER SCNTRL/SWRN NEB INTO NWRN KS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   RESULTING IN STRONG 2000-3000 J/KG POST FRONTAL CAPE. WV IMAGERY
   SHOWS A VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
   TROUGH OVER CNTRL CO. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AUGMENTED BY NELY
   NEAR SFC WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN STORMS NEXT FEW
   HOURS. UP TO 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR STORMS GO GROW
   UPSCALE GIVEN 25F BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER
   NERN CO. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
   EXTENT OF TORNADO RISK WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO
   AN MCS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40280217 40810106 40839915 39479978 38870071 38880206
               40280217 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2014
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