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Mesoscale Discussion 998
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS THROUGH ERN NEB...NWRN IA AND EXTREME
   SERN SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294...

   VALID 150039Z - 150215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 294 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE SHORT TERM TORNADO
   THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS ECNTRL THROUGH NERN NEB INTO
   NWRN IA.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
   EXTENDS ACROSS ERN NB INTO NCNTRL AND WCNTRL KS. A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDS EAST ACROSS NRN IA...AND OTHER STORMS ARE INITIATING WITHIN
   ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NWRN IA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY
   FOR STORMS TO BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. DESPITE THIS
   TREND...SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   IN ADDITION TO THE MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
   ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE STORMS IS MORE MOIST WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
   /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND LARGER HODOGRAPHS...BUT IS ALSO MORE
   CAPPED. WITHIN THE INITIATION ZONE...DEWPOINTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER
   /LOW-MID 60S/ AND HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALLER WHICH HAVE BEEN A LIMITING
   FACTOR SO FAR FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT. AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...THE ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A FEW
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF SOME DISCRETE MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED. THE
   SHORT TERM TORNADO THREAT MAY BE A LITTLE GREATER ACROSS ECNTRL
   THROUGH NERN NEB AND NWRN IA WHERE STORMS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

   ..DIAL.. 06/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39389946 41399832 43269670 42879562 39609768 39389946 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2014
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