|Mesoscale Discussion 998|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0998
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
Areas affected...northern Wyoming and southern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 122017Z - 122145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to form over central Wyoming.
Coverage and intensity of storms are expected to increase throughout
the afternoon hours, as they spread northward over time. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats from
the strongest storms, likely requiring a watch.
DISCUSSION...Strong insolation has led to destabilization across
central and northern Wyoming in advance of an upper-level low over
northeastern Nevada. As the upper-low approaches the area,
mid-level ascent will favor increasing storm coverage and intensity.
With low 50s F dewpoint temperatures holding across much of the
region, MLCAPE values will approach 1000 J/kg. The instability
coupled with effective deep-layer shear around 50 knots will be more
than sufficient to support rotating updrafts. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary severe weather hazards. Severe
storm coverage is expected to be sufficient to require a watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42810663 42810734 42860839 43140915 43520956 44051008
44551103 45091166 45591163 45901105 45851020 45810801
45670670 45450594 44780566 43720598 42810663
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