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Mesoscale Discussion 999
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND SWRN KS / ERN OK AND NERN TX PANHANDLES
   / NWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 150055Z - 150230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
   W-CNTRL AND SWRN KS.  A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...ALBEIT LOWER
   PROBABILITY...EXISTS OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF OK AND THE NERN TX
   PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MID-LEVEL
   CONVECTION OVER SERN CO INTO FAR NERN NM WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE LEADING EDGE TO A BAND OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT VIA THE CO
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT/CONVECTION IS LOCATED
   OVERTOP A VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE W OF A RETREATING
   DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM HUTCHINSON COUNTY TX NWD AND EQUIDISTANT
   BETWEEN GCK AND DDC.  AS THE CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD INTO THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...EXPECTING THE LOBE OF ASCENT/ONSET
   OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE IN THE 02-03Z
   PERIOD.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ON
   AT LEAST AN ISOLATED BASIS AND FAVORABLY TIME WITH A RAPID INCREASE
   IN A SLY LLJ /50+ KT/ INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN KS BY MID-EVENING. 
   THOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT IS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY...AN ATTENDANT
   LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WIND GUST
   RISK WOULD ENSUE IF STORMS MATURE AND ARE SUSTAINED.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37710113 36120168 35370123 35449986 36049920 38749884
               39139978 39060089 38750121 37710113 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2014
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