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Mesoscale Discussion 999
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0999
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122051Z - 122245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms will be capable of
   damaging gusts late this afternoon into early evening. The threat is
   expected to be isolated and a watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating in the vicinity of a diffuse
   dryline has resulted in weak-moderate surface based instability and
   very steep low-level lapse rates.  Latest visible satellite and
   radar data show towering cumulus across the Texas South Plains and
   far west Texas with an isolated thunderstorm west of Fort Stockton.
   Despite weak mid-level southwesterly flow of 15-20 kts, southeast
   low-level flow is contributing to effective shear averaging 25-35
   kts.  Isolated high-based thunderstorms will continue to develop
   through early evening and the strongest storms will be capable of
   damaging gusts. Sufficient shear is in place for some risk for large
   hail, especially over southern portions of the discussion area.
   Overall coverage is expected to remain isolated and a watch is not
   anticipated.

   ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33690218 34560160 34160073 33080078 31730144 30290211
               29920230 30070318 30600353 31840275 32850246 33690218 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2017
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