|Mesoscale Discussion 999|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0999
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
Areas affected...Portions of west Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 122051Z - 122245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms will be capable of
damaging gusts late this afternoon into early evening. The threat is
expected to be isolated and a watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating in the vicinity of a diffuse
dryline has resulted in weak-moderate surface based instability and
very steep low-level lapse rates. Latest visible satellite and
radar data show towering cumulus across the Texas South Plains and
far west Texas with an isolated thunderstorm west of Fort Stockton.
Despite weak mid-level southwesterly flow of 15-20 kts, southeast
low-level flow is contributing to effective shear averaging 25-35
kts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms will continue to develop
through early evening and the strongest storms will be capable of
damaging gusts. Sufficient shear is in place for some risk for large
hail, especially over southern portions of the discussion area.
Overall coverage is expected to remain isolated and a watch is not
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33690218 34560160 34160073 33080078 31730144 30290211
29920230 30070318 30600353 31840275 32850246 33690218
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