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Mesoscale Discussion 1000
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1000
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

   Areas affected...North-central Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122248Z - 130115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms advancing east from central WI may pose a risk for
   producing severe weather into west-central and perhaps central Lower
   MI by mid-late evening.  Watch potential will continue to be
   monitored for this region, though current likelihood for issuance is
   low.

   DISCUSSION...Late afternoon/early evening surface analyses showed a
   boundary extending from south-central WI across the middle portion
   of Lake Michigan into west-central Lower MI (Mason and Manistee
   Counties), then east-northeast near KHTL to Alcona County MI. 
   Despite clouds across much of north-central and central Lower MI, a
   corridor of surface dew points in the upper 60s to 70 F in vicinity
   of the boundary and some late-day heating in west-central Lower MI
   is resulting in mixed-layer CAPE of at least 1000 J/kg.  

   Meanwhile, if the ongoing bowing line of storms moving east at 35-40
   kt across south-central WI maintains this forward speed, it will
   reach west-central Lower MI around 02Z.  Uncertainty exists with the
   effect the pre-bow storms have on the forward speed of the bow and
   its potential to reach parts of Lower MI prior to boundary-layer
   stabilization with the loss of daytime heating.  Any storms that can
   move across Lake Michigan will move into at least a moderately
   unstable environment through mid evening with effective bulk shear
   strengthening as westerly midlevel winds increase.  Last several
   runs of the HRRR suggest storms will move across north-central Lower
   MI from 02/03Z through 07Z.

   ..Peters/Edwards.. 06/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44398628 44498548 44498492 44468456 44378447 44038459
               43688541 43478642 44028655 44398628 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2017
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