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Mesoscale Discussion 1000
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0841 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PA AND ADJACENT
   SOUTHEAST NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...

   VALID 130141Z - 130315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHEAST NY.  A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF WW
   296...GIVEN THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0125Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF
   STORMS EXTENDING FROM DELAWARE COUNTY NY SWWD INTO NERN PA
   /SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY/ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA /PERRY COUNTY/.  EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND 40-50 KT WLY
   FLOW BETWEEN 1-5 KM AGL PER CCX VAD AT 0124Z WILL MAINTAIN THE EWD
   MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM COULD STILL
   REACH THE SURFACE WITHIN THE ERN EXTENT OF WW 296 AND POSSIBLY ONE
   ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST...CURRENT TRENDS IN RAP-DERIVED
   THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST SURFACED-BASED INHIBITION IS
   INCREASING WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS.  THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...GIVEN THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING/ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39777833 40887690 42067555 42337455 42077423 41687456
               41477475 41157512 40277633 39777640 39717669 39717773
               39777833 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2015
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