Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1000
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1000 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1000
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

   Areas affected...North-central Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122248Z - 130115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms advancing east from central WI may pose a risk for
   producing severe weather into west-central and perhaps central Lower
   MI by mid-late evening.  Watch potential will continue to be
   monitored for this region, though current likelihood for issuance is

   DISCUSSION...Late afternoon/early evening surface analyses showed a
   boundary extending from south-central WI across the middle portion
   of Lake Michigan into west-central Lower MI (Mason and Manistee
   Counties), then east-northeast near KHTL to Alcona County MI. 
   Despite clouds across much of north-central and central Lower MI, a
   corridor of surface dew points in the upper 60s to 70 F in vicinity
   of the boundary and some late-day heating in west-central Lower MI
   is resulting in mixed-layer CAPE of at least 1000 J/kg.  

   Meanwhile, if the ongoing bowing line of storms moving east at 35-40
   kt across south-central WI maintains this forward speed, it will
   reach west-central Lower MI around 02Z.  Uncertainty exists with the
   effect the pre-bow storms have on the forward speed of the bow and
   its potential to reach parts of Lower MI prior to boundary-layer
   stabilization with the loss of daytime heating.  Any storms that can
   move across Lake Michigan will move into at least a moderately
   unstable environment through mid evening with effective bulk shear
   strengthening as westerly midlevel winds increase.  Last several
   runs of the HRRR suggest storms will move across north-central Lower
   MI from 02/03Z through 07Z.

   ..Peters/Edwards.. 06/12/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44398628 44498548 44498492 44468456 44378447 44038459
               43688541 43478642 44028655 44398628 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: June 13, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities