Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1002
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1002 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL NM...SW TX PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH
   PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131254Z - 131500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING PARTS OF E-CNTRL NM
   WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD...AND MAY POSE A RISK FOR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW
   ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT-TERM.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ACROSS
   E-CNTRL NM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE MATURED IN ADVANCE OF A
   SUBTLE...LOW-AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVELS PER
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...EVOLVING FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION
   CROSSING PARTS OF NM THROUGH THE NIGHT. INTERPOLATION BETWEEN 12Z
   MAF AND AMA RAOBS SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD
   AT THE NRN EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ACCOMPANYING AN EML TO THE SOUTH. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF
   INFLOW COULD BE ENCOURAGED BY AREAS OF MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS -- REF. THE AFOREMENTIONED RAOBS THAT
   SAMPLE MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 12.5-13.0 G/KG. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   THE CONVECTION -- THAT HAS THUS FAR BEEN LIKELY SUB-SEVERE -- MAY
   CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS OF W TX THIS MORNING. A DMGG WIND GUST OR
   TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AS PRECEDING MLCAPE GROWS TO
   750-1500 J/KG THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK WITH THIS PARTICULAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
   LIMITED IN THE SHORT-TERM.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34550344 35290338 35210187 34340152 33580196 33580373
               34550344 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 13, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities