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Mesoscale Discussion 1002
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 150356Z - 150530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH SCNTRL AND SERN KS
   INTO THE EARLY MORNING POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. A
   NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 296 BEFORE 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE MERGER BETWEEN THE RETREATING DRYLINE AND
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE MOVING EAST AROUND 40 KT THROUGH SWRN KS
   NEAR DODGE CITY. CAPPING INVERSION DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING GUST
   FRONT AUGMENTED A 60 KT SLY LLJ...MAINTAINING A FORWARD PROPAGATING
   SYSTEM. STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE-STRONG 40-60 KT
   DEEP LAYER WINDS AS THEY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING
   SEGMENTS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37879843 38999829 38919728 38269638 37199666 37119823
               37879843 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2014
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