MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...NRN WV...WRN MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 091738Z - 091915Z
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN OH...NRN WV AND WRN MD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT ARCING SWD
   THROUGH CENTRAL NY THEN SW ACROSS WRN PA AND SRN OH. SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW
   80S...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION /PER 16Z PIT
   RAOB/...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J PER KG/. FAVORABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING E
   ACROSS OH HAS RESULTED IN SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT...MOVING ESE AT AROUND 20 KT. THOUGH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND
   SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND LINE
   SEGMENTS...WHICH MAY POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. IN
   ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE WILL ALSO FAVOR SEVERE
   HAIL IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   38278054 38088239 38688393 39348422 39858351 39827938
               39457758 38977834 38278054