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Mesoscale Discussion 1003
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NM...TX S PLAINS SWD TO FAR W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131822Z - 132045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND
   A TORNADO OR TWO. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH IS LIKELY
   PRIOR TO 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...WITH THE CONTINUED EROSION OF MORNING CLOUD
   COVER...DIURNAL HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
   ERN NM/FAR W TX AND THE TX S PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
   THE UPPER  70S TO MID 80S. WITH 60S DEW POINTS WIDESPREAD... LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
   MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR
   MOSAICS INDICATE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL NM AND
   OVER THE DAVIS MTNS IN W TX...AND OVER E-CENTRAL NM ASSOCIATED WITH
   A REMNANT MCV. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED
   AS FRIDAY...INCREASING COVERAGE APPEARS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER
   CENTRAL NM MOVES E.

   BY MID AFTN EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WITH
   MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   EXIST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN FRINGE OF AN EML. TSTMS INITIALLY WILL
   LIKELY BE A MIX OF SVR MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO OR
   TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WHERE ROTATING STORMS
   INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING TSTMS.

   WITH TIME...INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/MERGING OUTFLOWS SHOULD RESULT
   IN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS AND
   PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING.

   GIVEN THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF SVR TSTMS...A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
   20Z.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34540504 34820481 35010421 35330367 35220289 34660247
               34180221 33710217 32850216 32220221 31020236 30620270
               30320315 30370397 31280423 31640429 34540504 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2015
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