MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KS INTO SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...
   
   VALID 091759Z - 091930Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354
   CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE INVOF WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
   AND AN WW UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY.
   
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANCHOR STORM SE OF EMP HAS EVOLVED
   INTO A LARGE HP SUPERCELL SITUATED VERY NEAR SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
   SLOWLY DEVELOPING NWD.  INFLOW AIR MASS OVER SERN KS INTO SWRN MO IS
   RATHER MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.  WHEN COUPLED WITH
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORM IS LIKELY INGESTING
   SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.
   
   GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
   QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AS STORM CONTINUES ESEWD. 
   WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
   STORM CAN LIMIT COLD POOL GENERATION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   38139527 38519491 38559405 38229281 37859181 37439159
               37139189 37259309 37749505 38139527