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Mesoscale Discussion 1004
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MO...FAR SERN IA...CNTRL/NRN
   IL...NWRN IND...FAR SWRN MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131942Z - 132145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
   ISSUANCE...WITH THE POTENTIAL THREATS PRIMARILY BEING A FEW STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS.

   DISCUSSION...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS INDICATE GRADUAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE OPEN WARM
   SECTOR...SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NERN
   KS TO NRN IL. MOREOVER...SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN SWLY
   FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AID FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS
   WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
   OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS ARE YIELDING
   MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1500-2000 J/KG /PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS
   DATA/. 

   MODESTLY ENHANCED 700-500-MB FLOW AROUND 35-40 KT AND RESULTANT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KT /BASED UPON RECENT KDVN VWP/ SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MULTICELL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. INDEED...KDVN/KLOT DATA HAVE
   SUGGESTED SOME ROTATION ALOFT IN A FEW STRONGER CELLS...ALONG WITH
   SEVERAL MODEST THREE-BODY SCATTER SIGNATURES /EVIDENT IN ZDR AND CC
   DATA/ RECENTLY. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   42148776 42158759 42238619 42058595 41448603 40858633
               40018871 39359028 39099115 39269152 40119212 40759194
               40879182 41329097 41888993 42118895 42148776 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2015
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