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Mesoscale Discussion 1005
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX...EXTREME S-CENTRAL
   OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132015Z - 132145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
   DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE REMAINDER OF THIS
   AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
   CLEAR...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE SHOULD
   STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   FROM NEAR KNOX CO TX EWD TO JACK CO AT 2010Z. AIDED BY DOWNDRAFTS
   FROM ON-GOING STORMS...THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SLOWLY SWD OVER THE
   PAS COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
   /PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
   J/KG IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK
   /20-25 KT/ THUS LIMITING STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. STILL...WITH
   AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE
   IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH
   SHOULD STORMS SHOW SOME INDICATION OF BETTER ORGANIZATION.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33009837 33219955 33629997 33980006 33969992 33839958
               33719925 33579884 33689839 33989814 34479764 34309741
               33459774 33009837 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2015
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