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Mesoscale Discussion 1005
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/E KS...SE NEB...SW IA...NW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...298...

   VALID 150610Z - 150745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   297...298...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...INTENSE QLCS WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AT CURRENT
   50 KT MOVEMENT...QLCS WOULD REACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 297 BY 08Z.
   PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE/EXTENSION IS 90 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...LOW/MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY CORES ON THE NRN PORTION OF
   THE WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST
   HOUR WITH MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GENERALLY CONFINED TO KS.
   STILL...INTENSE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE ALONG
   WITH UP TO AN 80 KT REAR-INFLOW JET SAMPLED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO IN
   KUEX VWP DATA...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT NUMEROUS MEASURED/ESTIMATED
   45-60 KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS. BOWING STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN CAPABLE
   OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES THE MO VALLEY. THE ERN
   EDGE OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN WRN IA TO NW MO SHOULD BE
   REALIZED AS THE ERN EXTENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   41399715 41649657 41949589 42229504 41809443 40379399
               39749398 37329541 37169724 37169805 37449820 37809830
               38729755 39709688 40559681 41399715 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2014
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