MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN AND CENTRAL/ERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091623Z - 091800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN
   KY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 1630Z
   CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THAT WILL INCLUDE PARTS OF THIS REGION.

   DISCUSSION...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF LOW
   LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW EXTENDING FROM WRN AL INTO MIDDLE AND ERN
   TN...WITH A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE INTO THE
   DISCUSSION AREA /PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 INCH PER 12Z BNA
   SOUNDING/. A CONTINUATION OF DEEP LAYER SLY WINDS INTO THE TN VALLEY
   TODAY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER MOISTENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPULSE MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN...WHILE AN MCV WAS
   APPARENT AND CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO NRN AL. WEAK SURFACE BASED
   INHIBITION EVIDENT ON REGIONAL 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS HAS ALREADY
   BEEN ERODED BY SURFACE HEATING...WITH TSTMS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY TO THE SERN STATES.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KY AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...FURTHER
   DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE AND MCV WITHIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY MIDLEVEL
   WINDS /40+ KT AOA 6 KM AGL PER VWP DATA FROM MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL
   KY/ SUGGEST STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD FAVORING LINE SEGMENTS. WEAK MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO TEMPER THE INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN LESS
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT COULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING THE OVERALL
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2013


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   HUN...

   LAT...LON   34928686 36358617 37508583 38358501 38448361 38198269
               37558279 36008350 35058414 34938453 34928686