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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF VA AND MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091831Z - 092000Z
STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF VA INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE...WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW.
18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SE TO NW ORIENTED THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...LIKELY PRODUCED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FARTHER S...A TROUGH
AXIS POSITIONED FROM ERN NC N INTO ERN VA HAS SERVED TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST HR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL
TOWERING CUMULUS NOTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE NC/SC COASTS.
OTHER SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FARTHER W ACROSS S CENTRAL VA SWD INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90...AND DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECTING THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELD MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
PULSE TYPE SEVERE WEATHER...POSING A RISK OF MAINLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...DUE TO WEAK
FLOW ALOFT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
..GARNER.. 06/09/2009
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
GSP...
LAT...LON 33648212 35098199 37448029 37937789 37147619 35807587
34167778 32518078 33648212
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