MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF VA AND MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 091831Z - 092000Z
   
   STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   SRN PORTIONS OF VA INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE...WHICH
   SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW.
   
   18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SE TO NW ORIENTED THERMAL
   GRADIENT OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...LIKELY PRODUCED BY CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FARTHER S...A TROUGH
   AXIS POSITIONED FROM ERN NC N INTO ERN VA HAS SERVED TO FOCUS
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST HR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL
   TOWERING CUMULUS NOTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE NC/SC COASTS.
   OTHER SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   FARTHER W ACROSS S CENTRAL VA SWD INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS AS
   A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
   90...AND DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS REFLECTING THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELD MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
   PULSE TYPE SEVERE WEATHER...POSING A RISK OF MAINLY DAMAGING
   DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...DUE TO WEAK
   FLOW ALOFT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
   CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
   GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   33648212 35098199 37448029 37937789 37147619 35807587
               34167778 32518078 33648212