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Mesoscale Discussion 1005
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1005
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

   Areas affected...Far eastern WI into central and northern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

   Valid 130230Z - 130400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321

   SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat (primarily damaging winds) has
   exited the land areas of WW 319 in eastern WI, with the storms
   moving across middle portions of Lake Michigan.  Potential continues
   for storms to be capable of producing strong wind gusts as they
   spread across Lake Michigan, reaching the eastern shore of Lake
   Michigan between 0230-03Z, and then advancing inland across Lower MI
   late this evening/early overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated the strongest
   and most persistent portion of the eastward-moving band of storms
   was located over the open waters of the north-central to central
   portions of Lake Michigan (or from 45 NE KMTW to 35 WSW KMBL) at
   0210Z.  The storm motion is toward the east-northeast at 35-40 kt
   and should reach the eastern shore of Lake Michigan by 0230-03Z in
   the MI counties of Mason, Manistee, and Benzie.  Although objective
   analyses indicated ongoing boundary-layer stabilization with an
   increase in surface-based inhibition/weakening surface-3-km lapse
   rates, the strength of the cold pool could prove sufficient to
   support stronger wind gusts reaching the surface.  This potential
   should be further aided by an increase in MUCAPE (per objective
   analyses) of 1500-2000 J/kg, as a plume of steep midlevel lapse
   rates spreads across into Lower MI, sustaining the band of storms.

   ..Peters.. 06/13/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42778615 42838700 43948709 44718667 44878544 44878325
               44278323 43768268 43308326 43178383 42818393 42778615 

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