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Mesoscale Discussion 1006
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS INTO FAR
   W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...

   VALID 132049Z - 132145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
   WITH TIME ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...AND SPREAD
   EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW SVR TSTMS WERE NOTED ACROSS E-CENTRAL AND SERN
   NM...AND SW OF FORT STOCKTON IN FAR W TX AT 2040Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE
   WARMED INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE WATCH...AND LOWER/MID 90S
   ACROSS FAR W TX. DESPITE SOME MIXING...DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S
   RESULTING IN MOD-STG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE DOWNSTREAM
   ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ERN NM
   SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 30 TO LOCALLY 40 KT
   RANGE WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SUPERCELL AND SVR MULTICELL/SHORT LINE
   STRUCTURES WITH SVR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. UPSCALE GROWTH
   WITH TIME INTO ONE OR TWO EWD-MOVING COMPLEXES IS ANTICIPATED
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AND SRN PANHANDLE. THIS
   EVOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   35550301 35200172 34340097 33640022 33240038 32970119
               32190150 31990183 31230210 31130234 30630243 30170279
               29860300 29790348 29890411 30680454 32010481 33730503
               34280513 34970517 35180377 35550301 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2015
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