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Mesoscale Discussion 1006
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SE KS...N OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...299...

   VALID 150742Z - 150915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   297...299...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WILL REMAIN PROBABLE WITH TRAILING PORTION OF QLCS ACROSS PARTS OF S
   KS/N OK. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE/EXTENSION INTO SE KS IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...GREATER THAN 35 DBZ REFLECTIVITY IN 9-KM CAPPI HAS
   BECOME CONFINED WITHIN THE SW/NE-ORIENTED PORTION OF THE QLCS ACROSS
   S-CNTRL KS TO NW OK. THIS TYPE OF ORIENTATION MORE CLOSELY PARALLELS
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW PER AREA VWP DATA. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   REMAINING AROUND 10-20 NM AHEAD OF THE HIGH REFLECTIVITY
   CORES...THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE RISK.
   STILL...WITH WARM SECTOR INFLOW CHARACTERIZED BY 67-71 DEG F SURFACE
   DEW POINTS AND A 65-KT LLJ AT 1 KM AGL PER VNX VWP DATA...STRONG
   STORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SCENARIO
   APPEARS REASONABLY SIMULATED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38099668 37879506 37609475 37259472 36879500 36279629
               36119773 36189966 36439971 36959837 37819713 38099668 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2014
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