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Mesoscale Discussion 1007
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL MO AND NRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132051Z - 132215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT
   FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MO/NRN AR...LIKELY DUE TO THE GLANCING
   INFLUENCE OF AN IMPULSE TO THE NW...AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL MCV
   LIFTING NE FROM OK. MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG HAS
   MATERIALIZED...RESULTING FROM AMPLE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   /MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 14-15 G PER KG/. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
   MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST/UNI-DIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL
   FLOW /DEPICTED BY THE KSGF VWP/ WILL LIKELY FURTHER THE TREND OF
   OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS...LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. WHILE
   FLOW INCREASES SOME FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING MAY
   PRECLUDE A GREATER THREAT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE MCD AREA.
   THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   NONETHELESS...CONSIDERING THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
   STORM MERGERS/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35669249 35559351 35729414 37659399 38709342 39419196
               38819028 37519062 36039135 35669249 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2015
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