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Mesoscale Discussion 1008
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND...FAR NW MN...EXTREME N-CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132211Z - 132345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL
   PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE BUT THE
   SHORT-DURATION OF THE STORMS AND LOW COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
   PEMBINA COUNTY IN FAR NE ND SWWD THROUGH FAR WRN SIOUX COUNTY IN
   S-CNTRL ND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE COLD
   FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM WRN WALSH COUNTY SWWD THROUGH FAR ERN SIOUX
   COUNTY. TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THIS TROUGH FOR THE PAST HOUR
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

   ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPERATURES IN MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
   DESPITE GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE AIRMASS IS STILL
   UNSTABLE WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J
   PER KG. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AS WELL WITH THE
   MVX VAD SAMPLING ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. BETTER SHEAR
   EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS.
   SOME ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE BUT THE GENERAL MARGINALITY OF THE
   OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SVR COVERAGE.
   ADDITIONALLY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS EWD
   PROGRESSION...WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
   WEAKENED CONVERGENCE IN TANDEM WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
   TSTMS AFTER 00Z.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47409900 48909789 48739639 47059739 45649958 45530109
               46090084 47409900 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2015
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