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Mesoscale Discussion 1009
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NWRN OK THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 160404Z - 160530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME NWRN OK INTO SWRN
   KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT PRODUCE HAIL...BUT A CONDITIONAL
   THREAT ALSO EXISTS FOR A TORNADO. DUE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONAL
   NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED
   UNLESS TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING...A FEW STORMS WERE INDICATED FROM
   EXTREME NWRN OK TO SWRN KS TO THE SOUTH OF DODGE CITY. THE ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE ASCENT
   WHERE THE INTENSIFYING LLJ INTERSECTS RETREATING WARM FRONT. RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT...BUT EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATED A
   CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAS LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THE INCREASING
   MESOSCALE ASCENT. GIVEN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONCERN IS THAT
   STORMS MAY BE ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37419746 36879936 37020052 37499999 38129769 37419746 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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