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Mesoscale Discussion 1009
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM...TX PANHANDLE...TX S PLAINS...SW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...

   VALID 132256Z - 140030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY
   WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS IN W-CNTRL NM WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN
   THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS
   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH THE STRONGEST DISCRETE CELLS LOCATED IN
   NRN LEA IN NM...FAR NRN CULBERSON IN TX...AND NRN BREWSTER IN SW TX.
   A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE
   TSTM CLUSTER EXTENDING ACROSS GUADALUPE...QUAY...ROOSEVELT...AND
   CHAVES COUNTIES IN NM. CONTINUED EWD PROGRESS OF THIS CLUSTER WILL
   LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LINE INTERSECTS
   SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS ROOSEVELT AND LEA COUNTIES. DOWNSTREAM
   ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J PER KG.
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
   WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 40
   KT.

   THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS IN THE WATCH CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RECENT SVR REPORTS INCLUDE A GUST OF
   53KT REPORTED AT KATS IN EDDY CO NM DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR AND
   MULTIPLE REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN W-CNTRL NM. WITH THE
   CONTINUED TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
   ORGANIZED MCS...SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS -- I.E. GREATER
   THAN 65 KT -- ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..MOSIER.. 06/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   30090491 35160459 35160120 30100174 30090491 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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