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Mesoscale Discussion 1010
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

   VALID 160747Z - 160945Z

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 09-11Z WITH
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. THIS REGION IS
   NOW UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH 12Z...WITH WW ISSUANCE
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN A 55 KT SLY LLJ SAMPLED IN GLD VWP DATA. SURFACE
   DEW POINT AT HLC JUMPED FROM 61 DEG F AT 06Z TO 65 DEG F AT 07Z WITH
   BROKEN LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS APPEARS TO DEMARCATE THE NRN
   EXTENT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY UPSTREAM MEAN MIXING
   RATIOS OF 15 G/KG AS SAMPLED IN 05Z LMN RAOB. ACCAS ACROSS SW INTO
   CNTRL NEB HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH CLOUD
   TOP COOLING MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE PAST 45 MINUTES. THIS COMBINED
   WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING AND ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD RESULT IN
   A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE OF MUCAPE AFTER 09Z. 06Z RAP FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO CNTRL NEB
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MINIMIZE INHIBITION FROM PARCELS ROOTED NEAR
   800-750 MB. LARGE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL
   EXIST FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41860116 42500077 42870018 42909925 42649807 42119739
               41239716 40559733 40309809 40439927 41050095 41360110
               41860116 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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