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Mesoscale Discussion 1010
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1010
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern New England...southeast
   NY...northern NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131825Z - 132100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some severe thunderstorm
   potential through the afternoon and into the evening. Uncertainty
   exists regarding the anticipated severe coverage, though the
   issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be possible across
   portions of the region.

   DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s from
   northern NJ and southeast NY and across southern New England, while
   the dewpoints have held in the middle/upper 60s. This is
   contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with little capping.
   Meanwhile, along the periphery of subtle midlevel speed maxima
   crossing northern NY into adjacent New England, and along subtle
   confluence axes farther south from northeast PA to southern New
   England, ascent has been sufficient to support initial towering
   cumulus and isolated thunderstorm development.

   Thunderstorms will likely increase in number and intensity during
   the next few hours as diurnal heating continues. A mix of weak
   supercell structures, and loosely organized convective clusters, may
   eventually evolve and spread eastward. This will be supported by
   sufficient deep shear aided by 25-30 kt westerly winds around 4-5 km
   above ground indicated by the Albany VAD wind profile. 

   Present indications are that severe coverage could be lacking, owing
   to the lack of stronger deep ascent/shear overlapping with the
   moderate buoyancy. However, with at least isolated to widely
   scattered severe hail/wind possible -- especially as convection
   develops into southern New England -- Watch issuance will be
   possible.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

   LAT...LON   41207482 41977388 42427114 41827028 41457053 41097161
               40887261 40767437 41207482 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2017
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