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Mesoscale Discussion 1011
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0833 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE...TX S PLAINS...SW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...

   VALID 140133Z - 140230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES
   MOVING ACROSS WW 297.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY SWD INTO ANDREWS COUNTY.
   ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS EXISTS ACROSS PECOS AND BREWSTER COUNTIES IN
   SW TX. THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
   HAS RECENT INTERSECTED A WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...THE
   SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH NRN PORTION OF THIS LINE.
   HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SRN PORTION OF
   THE LINE /ROUGHLY FROM TERRY COUNTY SWD/ AND THE DOWNSTREAM
   ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SVR. SVR GUSTS HAVE BEEN
   REPORTED WITH THIS LINE IN GAINES COUNTY AND LBB RADAR IMAGERY
   SUGGESTS THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS. THIS LOCALIZED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD END WHENEVER THE STORMS ARE UNDERCUT BY
   THE WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

   FARTHER S...A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN
   THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
   PECOS AND BREWSTER COUNTIES...EVIDENCED BY THE 6R6 OBSERVATION IN
   TERRELL COUNTY REPORTING 85/69. THE STORM IN BREWSTER COUNTY
   CURRENTLY HAS A MESH OVER 2.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...00Z DRT SOUNDING
   SAMPLED MLCINH OF 84 J PER KG WITH THE CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING FOSTERING AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO SURFACE-BASED
   CONVECTION. AS SUCH...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM SEVERITY IS
   EXPECTED.

   ..MOSIER.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   30090492 35160459 35170122 30100172 30090492 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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