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Mesoscale Discussion 1011
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1011
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131909Z - 132145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some severe thunderstorm
   risk developing this afternoon and continuing into the evening.
   Watch issuance will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Diurnally enhanced orographic circulations are
   encouraging towering cumulus development over the Davis Mountains
   and other southwest Texas mountains, on the east edges of nearly
   dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 3 km above ground. This
   initial convection should deepen, evolving into a couple of isolated
   storms. Meanwhile, a dryline continues to sharpen from near the
   southeast NM/southwest TX border southward to the international
   border. This dryline will be a focused zone for additional,
   possible, isolated thunderstorm development into the late afternoon
   hours. However, stronger forcing for ascent, attendant to a midlevel
   speed maximum advancing from the southern Rockies to the adjacent
   Plains, will reside north of the area.

   Nevertheless, sufficient deep shear peripheral to the speed 
   maximum -- e.g., effective shear of 25-35 kt -- may support a few
   sustained/organized cells (possible supercells) with severe
   hail/wind possible. Storm motion will be somewhat erratic, with a
   general slow eastward/southeastward spread of convection east of the
   dryline into the evening hours. Upward convective-scale
   accelerations will be bolstered by 8.0-8.5 C/km lapse rates
   overlying a relatively moist boundary layer east of the dryline,
   characterized by lower/middle 60s dewpoints. This is supporting
   upwards of 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Very isolated instances of
   significant severe hail could occur. However, overall storm coverage
   may be lacking, owing to the lack of stronger deep ascent.
   Regardless, convective and environmental trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30650404 32270262 32870191 32780115 32250104 30160249
               29840389 30650404 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2017
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