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Mesoscale Discussion 1012
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN WY...FAR SERN MT...CNTRL/WRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 140549Z - 140815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SVR-TSTM RISK THROUGH
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT ASCENT IN THE EXIT
   REGION OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS OVERSPREADING MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE N OF A SFC BOUNDARY ARCING FROM CNTRL SD INTO NWRN NEB TO
   CNTRL WY. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60F
   N OF THIS FRONT AS AN ELY/UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT CONTINUES
   IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE 00Z RIW RAOB SAMPLED H7-H5
   LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY FOR
   PARCELS ELEVATED ATOP A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
   GIVEN THE OVERLAP OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT AND BUOYANCY...CAPPI
   DATA AT 9 KM SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   FROM NERN WY INTO SERN MT...WITH A SUPERCELL TSTM EVIDENT OVER
   CAMPBELL COUNTY WY.

   THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO SD THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AIDED BY 40-50
   KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GENERALLY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AS NOCTURNAL COOLING CONTRIBUTES TO
   INCREASING CINH FOR A SFC-BASED PARCEL...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
   MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A WW. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
   GROWTH WERE TO OCCUR WITH COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION ENHANCING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE THE NOCTURNAL STABLE
   LAYER...THE SVR-WIND RISK WOULD INCREASE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
   SCENARIO IS LOW WITHOUT EVEN STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THE
   INCREASING NOCTURNAL CINH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44700643 45550382 45680198 45240096 44190108 43460422
               43630656 44700643 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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