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Mesoscale Discussion 1012
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MD 1012 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern IL and northwest IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131925Z - 132200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe-thunderstorm potential will exist into the
   early evening hours. Watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level ascent along a composite outflow/lake-breeze
   boundary is supporting increasingly agitated cumulus fields and
   isolated thunderstorm development from north-central IL into
   northwest IN. Strong diurnal heating south of this boundary
   continues, with temperatures having warmed into the lower/middle 90s
   amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, supporting 1500-2500
   J/kg of MLCAPE and little capping. A few robust convective cores
   capable of isolated severe hail/wind may occur into early evening.
   However, with this activity approximately aligned with a
   larger-scale ridge aloft associated with a dearth of deep ascent and
   paucity of ambient tropospheric flow/vertical shear, organized
   convection and greater coverage of severe storms are not expected.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40888814 41168885 41748916 42178903 42078837 41798797
               41528740 41428648 41228629 40898687 40888814 

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