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Mesoscale Discussion 1012
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern IL and northwest IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131925Z - 132200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe-thunderstorm potential will exist into the
   early evening hours. Watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level ascent along a composite outflow/lake-breeze
   boundary is supporting increasingly agitated cumulus fields and
   isolated thunderstorm development from north-central IL into
   northwest IN. Strong diurnal heating south of this boundary
   continues, with temperatures having warmed into the lower/middle 90s
   amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, supporting 1500-2500
   J/kg of MLCAPE and little capping. A few robust convective cores
   capable of isolated severe hail/wind may occur into early evening.
   However, with this activity approximately aligned with a
   larger-scale ridge aloft associated with a dearth of deep ascent and
   paucity of ambient tropospheric flow/vertical shear, organized
   convection and greater coverage of severe storms are not expected.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40888814 41168885 41748916 42178903 42078837 41798797
               41528740 41428648 41228629 40898687 40888814 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2017
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