|Mesoscale Discussion 1012|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017
Areas affected...Portions of northern IL and northwest IN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131925Z - 132200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe-thunderstorm potential will exist into the
early evening hours. Watch issuance will not be needed.
DISCUSSION...Low-level ascent along a composite outflow/lake-breeze
boundary is supporting increasingly agitated cumulus fields and
isolated thunderstorm development from north-central IL into
northwest IN. Strong diurnal heating south of this boundary
continues, with temperatures having warmed into the lower/middle 90s
amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, supporting 1500-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE and little capping. A few robust convective cores
capable of isolated severe hail/wind may occur into early evening.
However, with this activity approximately aligned with a
larger-scale ridge aloft associated with a dearth of deep ascent and
paucity of ambient tropospheric flow/vertical shear, organized
convection and greater coverage of severe storms are not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40888814 41168885 41748916 42178903 42078837 41798797
41528740 41428648 41228629 40898687 40888814
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