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Mesoscale Discussion 1012
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/SERN SD/SWRN MN/WRN IA/FAR NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301...

   VALID 161519Z - 161715Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS -- POSING A CONTINUED RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL -- MAY ALSO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
   WRN IA AND ADJACENT AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB ATTM...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF
   CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN QUARTER OF SD.  STORMS
   REMAIN ELEVATED ATTM...LIMITING PRIMARY SEVERE RISK TO LARGE HAIL.

   WITH TIME HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN IA/SWRN MN VICINITY
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD BENEATH
   VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA. 
   WHILE HEATING IS BEING HAMPERED IN MOST AREAS BY EXPANDING ANVIL
   DEBRIS...EXPECT THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED
   WITH TIME AS THEY CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.  

   CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL THAT
   THE SD CONVECTION AND THAT OVER ERN NEB MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A
   LARGE MCS...AND GIVEN INCREASING CAPE ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
   FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION...DOWNSTREAM WW WILL
   LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY MIDDAY.

   ..GOSS.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
   LBF...

   LAT...LON   40739210 40259362 40049512 40089687 40379727 41399709
               42379818 42989881 43749947 44669754 45239381 43219260
               40739210 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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