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Mesoscale Discussion 1013
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141001Z - 141230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED...LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS IS
   PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD AND SWRN ND...WITH LEADING
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS RELATED TO WARM ADVECTION FOCUSED EWD ACROSS
   OTHER PARTS OF SRN ND. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS HAS BEEN
   ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD/ERN WY...WHERE 2-HOUR PRESSURE
   RISES OF AROUND 1.5-2.5 MB ARE EVIDENT. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD
   EXHIBIT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS IT OVERTAKES MODESTLY GREATER
   THETA-E WITHIN AND E OF A NE/SW-ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE APPROXIMATELY
   BISECTING SD AND EXTENDING INTO NWRN MN. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE
   PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
   SFC FRONT...WHERE GREATER MUCAPE EXISTS. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND
   40-50 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY ABR...UDX...AND BIS VWPS
   SUPPORTS SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR MCS MAINTENANCE THROUGH
   THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

   DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION OF THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED STABLE LAYER
   SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...THE RESIDUAL MIXED LAYER EVOLVING FROM YESTERDAY/S DIURNAL
   HEATING CYCLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT SAMPLED BY RAP/ABR 00Z RAOBS MAY
   CONTINUE TO OFFER SUFFICIENT DCAPE FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. AN
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
   MCS PROGRESSES EWD AND POTENTIALLY EXHIBITS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
   LEADING SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
   WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER E IN ND MAY ALSO SUPPORT STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
   DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE LARGER-SCALE COLD-POOL ENHANCEMENT TO SFC
   WIND GUSTS.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43810371 44440226 45970080 46609860 46269755 44069997
               43490298 43810371 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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