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Mesoscale Discussion 1014
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1014
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles...TX South
   Plains...and western OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 132014Z - 132245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development will likely occur in the
   21-22Z time frame, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be likely.
   Significant severe hail will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus development continues in proximity
   to diurnal-heating bolstered dryline circulations from the central
   OK Panhandle to western/central parts of the TX Panhandle and South
   Plains. As MLCINH accompanying a warm elevated mixed layer continues
   to erode, thunderstorm development will be likely in the 21-22Z time
   frame, with activity spreading east-northeastward into the evening
   hours east of the sharpening dryline. East of the dryline, surface
   dewpoints have held in the lower/middle 60s beneath 8-9 C/km
   midlevel lapse rates, yielding SBCAPE locally upwards of 3000-4000
   J/kg. Furthermore, with 35-45 kt of effective shear -- enhanced by a
   vertically veering wind profile and in proximity to a midlevel speed
   maximum crossing the area per water vapor imagery -- sustained
   supercells with significant severe hail will be likely. Some risk
   for giant hail (4-inch hail) cannot be ruled out. Into the late
   afternoon hours and the evening, strengthening convective outflow
   with merging outflows may support isolated to widely scattered
   severe wind gusts, as convection spreads into western OK. Given the
   substantial buoyancy, and increase in effective SRH early this
   evening coincident with the incipient stages of nocturnal decoupling
   of the boundary layer, a tornado could also occur.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33230208 33910223 35230181 36800067 36809973 36219961
               34379992 33340050 33060161 33230208 

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