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Mesoscale Discussion 1014
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141234Z - 141500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ONGOING MCS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...PERHAPS DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
   DAKOTA...AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL POSE SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN MCS CROSSING PARTS
   OF WRN/CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA HAS EVOLVED INTO MULTIPLE BANDED
   STRUCTURES...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BECOME ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO THE
   MEAN CLOUD-LAYER FLOW SAMPLED BY ABR/UDX VWPS. THESE VWPS SAMPLE
   40-50-KT SWLYS/WSWLYS IN THE MID LEVELS...SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DEEP
   SHEAR FOR MAINTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AS THE
   SYSTEM SPREADS EWD. THIS ACTIVITY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
   SPORADIC SVR WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS IT INTENSIFIED AFTER
   ADVANCING INTO THE WRN EXTENT OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E INVOF AND
   E OF A FRONTAL ZONE BISECTING SD FROM NE TO SW. THE PRESENCE OF A
   RESIDUAL MIXED LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DCAPE MAY ALSO BE CONTRIBUTING
   TO DOWNDRAFTS PENETRATING THE NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER.

   INITIAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST WIDESPREAD INSOLATION ON
   THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND E OF THE MCS-RELATED CIRRUS
   SHIELD...WHERE SFC DIABATIC HEATING AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   60S WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE
   OF THE MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD...ESPECIALLY WITH A PAIR OF MCVS HAVING
   BECOME ESTABLISHED IN N-CNTRL SD...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
   SVR WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS SD. THE RELATED MCVS MAY
   ALSO ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS NEWD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   ND...WHERE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

   HOWEVER...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUCH RISK MAY BE RELATIVELY
   NARROW...OWING TO RESIDUAL CONTINENTAL AIR FARTHER E TOWARD THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY -- WHERE POLEWARD FLUXES OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR MAY
   NOT BE ABUNDANT IN THE SHORT-TERM. FURTHERMORE...THE 12Z ABR RAOB
   SUGGESTS THAT THE LACK OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONLY
   MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY MITIGATE DIURNAL GAINS IN
   BUOYANCY TO SOME EXTENT. THESE FACTORS CAST DOUBT ON THE OVERALL
   POTENTIAL FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43250144 43740124 44380005 45559946 46159898 46539836
               46309717 45529713 43499820 43159990 43250144 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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