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Mesoscale Discussion 1014
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OH AND NORTHERN WV
   TO WESTERN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161801Z - 162000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OH AND NORTHERN WV INTO WESTERN
   OH.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF OH SINCE LATE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
   INCREASINGLY WARM/WEAKLY INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS POSSIBLE
   THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE/SUBTLE MCV VIA
   UPSTREAM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...A GENERAL PREVALENCE
   OF 80S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS
   LEADING TO AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...BASED ON CONTEMPORARY
   MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON OH ASIDE
   FROM THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS. WHILE THE REGION IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
   STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...MODEST WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 3-6 KM AND
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ADEQUATE CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
   SUSTAINED EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS THIS
   AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT SEVERE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER CALIBER WIND GUSTS
   HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM WRIGHT-PATERSON AFB /37
   KT/ AND PARKERSBURG WV /40 KT/.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39248360 39948365 41208228 41668009 41297947 39547970
               38668115 38428246 39248360 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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