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Mesoscale Discussion 1015
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 161913Z - 162015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEB WOULD
   POSE SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK.  WW POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREADING SWWD/SWD ACROSS NRN AND ERN NEB...IN
   THE WAKE OF CONVECTION CROSSING SERN SD AND WRN IA.  S AND W OF
   THESE OUTFLOWS...STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY...WITH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S
   BENEATH A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING 3000 TO
   4000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN NEB AND ADJACENT
   PARTS OF KS/NWRN MO/SWRN IA.

   WHILE TIMING OF INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE IN
   PART TO PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW SHOWERS -- LIKELY
   ELEVATED JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW -- ARE INDICATED INVOF
   PLATTE/BOONE/MADISON COUNTIES IN ERN NEB.  WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH/VORT MAX CROSSING CENTRAL KS/S CENTRAL NEB ATTM PER WV
   IMAGERY...ADDITIONAL DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE FROM THE
   INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THE INCREASINGLY VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE AREA...WW WILL BE
   NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42809709 42119643 41649585 40669513 39949505 40069732
               40899987 41770037 43360013 42809709 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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