MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN OK/FAR SERN KS/SRN MO/NWRN-NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361...
   
   VALID 100726Z - 100830Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361
   CONTINUES.
   
   A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z ACROSS SWRN INTO SRN MO AS ONGOING STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM ALLEN COUNTY KS TO CEDAR COUNTY MO
   TRACK E/SEWD.  THIS THREAT POTENTIAL HAS WARRANTED THE A NWD SPATIAL
   EXTENSION OF WW 361.  ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY IN
   WAKE OF ONGOING NRN AR MCS/BOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
   MAINLY HAIL.
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO ONGOING MCS OVER NRN AR EXTENDED WNWWD
   THROUGH WRN AR TO NERN OK.  A STRONG SWLY LLJ /40 KT/ EXTENDING INTO
   THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN SERN KS/SWRN MO IS AIDING ASCENT IN
   THIS REGION VIA LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET.  MODELS
   SUGGEST THIS LLJ SHOULD VEER TO WLY OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATE INTO SRN
   MO/NRN AR BY 12Z TODAY AND MAINTAIN INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. 
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS AT 40-50 KT GIVEN 50
   KT WLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  THESE
   FACTORS COMBINED WITH EWD EXTENT OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME
   SPREADING INTO SWRN MO PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND 00 NAM SUGGEST
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK E/SEWD ACROSS
   SRN MO.  HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ANY LINE/BOW
   SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST.
   
   FARTHER SE...BOWING STRUCTURE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WW 362. 
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
   OF THIS BOW AND NORTH OF ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /UP TO 8 C/KM/...AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY
   HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/10/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   35129299 35659411 36169517 37339507 38079503 38099398
               38069242 37719144 37129105 36529113 35839142 35129299