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Mesoscale Discussion 1015
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/NRN
   INDIANA...FAR SRN LOWER MI...CENTRAL/NRN OH...LAKE ERIE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141720Z - 141915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   PRIOR TO 19Z FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z PLACED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A
   WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
   LOWER MICHIGAN. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE MID LEVELS WAS ALSO
   LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
   SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WAS IN
   PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PW
   VALUES OF 1.75 OR GREATER.  FLOW IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER IS RELATIVELY
   STRONG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA /35-45 KTS/...AND DIURNAL HEATING
   WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 TO LOCALLY 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
   AREA. WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVE
   EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
   LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A
   RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. 

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH PRIOR TO 19Z.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   41638227 42038125 41758070 40888059 40168065 39748158
               39898313 39918404 39728577 39458680 39268804 39638832
               40138842 40348829 40738777 41318678 42208532 42348471
               42568355 42368313 41898317 41628280 41638227 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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