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Mesoscale Discussion 1016
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND
   WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161919Z - 162045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED/EPISODIC SEVERE RISK...LARGE HAIL
   INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE...WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST IA/FAR NORTHEAST MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL/PERHAPS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR AN INCREASING
   OVERALL SEVERE RISK AND A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
   SEGMENT...STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
   MO AND ADJACENT EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST-CENTRAL IL SINCE 18Z.
   TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AS
   MUCH AS 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WHILE THE REGION RESIDES ON THE
   SOUTHEAST EDGE OF STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   WINDS...SOMEWHAT STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND AMPLE BUOYANCY APPEAR
   TO BE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO AS MUCH AS 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH TIME...ITS PLAUSIBLE THAT STORMS
   MAY TEND TO CONGEAL/SEMI-ORGANIZE WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   WHILE A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT/CERTAIN...IF STORMS CONTINUE
   TO CONSIDERABLY INTENSIFY AND/OR ORGANIZE A SURFACE COLD POOL...A
   WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41119239 40568948 39468875 39028944 39809120 40429258
               41119239 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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