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Mesoscale Discussion 1016
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1016
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 132049Z - 132315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms with a severe
   hail/wind risk may develop in the 2130-0000Z time frame and continue
   into the evening. The area is being monitored for possible Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The air mass east of a composite surface trough/dryline
   analyzed from the Hill City KS area southward to near Dodge City KS
   and farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles continues to undergo
   strong destabilization, owing to widespread insolation amid surface
   dewpoints holding in the lower/middle 60s. Diabatic-surface-heating-
   bolstered baroclinic circulations along the aforementioned composite
   boundary may support isolated to widely scattered surface-based
   convective initiation in the 2130-0000Z time frame, as lapse rates
   are approaching dry adiabatic in the lowest 3 km above ground west
   of this feature. The severe risk could also spread into the region
   from recently issued Watch 324 into the evening hours. Storm
   development may also be aided by modest large-scale ascent/midlevel
   cooling accompanying the southern extension of a speed maximum
   crossing the area, as implied by water vapor imagery.

   With 8.5-9.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates overlying the aforementioned
   moisture, SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg will support robust upward
   convective-scale accelerations. Meanwhile, effective shear of 25-35
   kt could support organized convective structures, with possible
   supercells. Forecast hodographs across the region are modestly long
   in the mid/high levels, with geometries of either straight or with
   one or two inflections. Resultant, storm-scale, upward perturbation
   pressure gradient forces could favor both left and right members of
   supercell splits, along with small convective clusters following
   potential mergers of initial cells. In addition to severe hail,
   amalgamating cold pools amid 1000-1700 J/kg of DCAPE may foster
   isolated to widely scattered severe wind gusts.

   Given the modest magnitude of large-scale ascent and somewhat modest
   deep shear magnitude, severe coverage may be limited, but may be
   sufficient for Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance by this evening.
   Convective and environmental trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38349893 38659903 38849949 39419953 39899926 39979857
               39879803 39289781 38549789 38329845 38349893 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2017
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