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Mesoscale Discussion 1016
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN NEB AND FAR SERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141751Z - 141945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE AN INCREASING RISK FOR A
   FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL REPORTS. THUS...CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ILLUSTRATE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NEAR A DECELERATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   STRETCHING FROM SWRN NEB TO ERN SD...WHERE IT MERGES WITH A
   SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
   THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW /E.G. 6-KM WINDS
   ONLY AROUND 20 KTS SAMPLED BY KLNX/...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
   THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM ARE YIELDING MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
   FURTHER HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY/ SHOULD FURTHER AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON. WHILE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STRUCTURES ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED...SUCH A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR TRANSIENT ORGANIZATION IN MORE VIGOROUS MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND A
   FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS. IN TURN...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SHEAR AT
   ANY BOUNDARY INTERFACE MAY PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A BRIEF
   LANDSPOUT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42509687 41359840 40690031 40650123 41030186 41310202
               41800178 42270076 42659980 43019868 43639761 43909724
               43929684 43699653 42979639 42669672 42509687 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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