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Mesoscale Discussion 1017
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN/SRN PA...CENTRAL/WRN MD...CENTRAL/NRN
   VA...DC...NRN WV/PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141806Z - 141930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/CLUSTERS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR
   PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 1930Z.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA AT 17Z WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS
   AND PW VALUES OF 1.6 OR GREATER.  DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS HAS
   RESULTED IN MLCAPE AVERAGING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...AND
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER IS AVERAGING 20-30
   KTS...STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND
   COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOUTHEAST-MOVING CLUSTERS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER
   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VIRGINIA...STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO
   PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS. 

   TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
   PRIOR TO 1930Z.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40528043 41278047 41628040 41648006 41607938 41107837
               39637658 38967622 37977643 37517712 37307797 37587894
               38297977 39358036 40528043 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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