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Mesoscale Discussion 1018
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1018
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0558 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central and northeastern MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132258Z - 140100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated and marginal risk for hail and strong/gusty
   winds will exist through the evening hours. Watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...22Z surface analysis indicates a 998 mb low in the
   vicinity of Miles City MT. A narrow east-west corridor of limited
   low-level moisture and surface heating across northeastern into
   north-central MT has allowed weak to locally moderate instability to
   develop. An upper low evident on water-vapor satellite imagery over
   central MT will continue northeastward this evening, and strong
   mid-level southerly to southeasterly winds, particularly across
   northeastern MT, are supporting generally 30-40 kt of effective bulk
   shear. Some isolated instances of marginally severe hail and
   strong/gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorm in this
   environment for the next several hours. Already weak instability
   should further lessen with the loss of daytime heating later this
   evening. The overall severe threat will very likely remain too
   isolated/marginal for watch issuance.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47531074 47661131 49051093 49040745 49040408 47670413
               46990464 47490644 47980742 47910905 47531074 

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