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Mesoscale Discussion 1018
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SWRN NEB/PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162050Z - 162245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK IS APPARENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA -- PENDING POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING CU
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...OBSERVED ACROSS SWRN NEB AND WRN KS
   ATTM.  WHILE THE AIRMASS HAS REMAINED CAPPED THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
   AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS YIELDED A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...WITH 3500 TO 4500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE INDICATED.

   WHILE FORCING/CONVERGENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND WHILE
   HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST NO DEVELOPMENT S OF THE
   KS/NEB BORDER...ADDITIONAL HEATING/EWD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR LOCAL BREACHES OF THE CAP YIELDING ISOLATED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE...AFOREMENTIONED
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH OBSERVED SHEAR
   QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS -- WOULD SUPPORT RISK FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO.
    WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THIS
   AREA -- WITH AN EYE TOWARD POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41149870 40899827 39819804 38879829 38149855 38119969
               38539977 39410025 40260072 41150074 41149870 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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