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Mesoscale Discussion 1018
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN TX AND ERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 142009Z - 142145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL REPORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...WITH SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN NM
   VORT MAX IMPINGING UPON THE AREA...AND ADEQUATE AFTERNOON
   HEATING...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM
   AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...THE CONTINUED NWD PROGRESSION OF
   AN MCV OVER KS HAS ALLOWED SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE TO GRADUALLY
   DEPART THE MCD AREA...SUPPORTING GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WEAK
   LEE TROUGHING/ZONES OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/COLD-POOL MERGERS WILL
   LIKELY YIELD ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
   EVENING. 

   ALTHOUGH MOIST SELY SFC FLOW IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RECENT
   KAMA VWP AND MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER...WITH AROUND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   AVAILABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. AS THE REGION IS ON THE EDGE OF
   THE WRN EML PLUME...A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY...WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PROMOTING TRANSIENT ORGANIZATION AND A
   RESULTANT THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. THEREFORE...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
   ISSUANCE BY EARLY EVENING. 

   OVER TIME...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR COLD-POOL
   MERGERS/DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH LIKELY
   YIELDING A REDUCTION OF THE SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING INTO THE
   EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33300176 32650245 32530325 32690388 34370383 35380358
               35890259 35900179 35850134 35570097 34820099 33300176 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2015
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