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Mesoscale Discussion 1019
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST MT TO WESTERN SD/NORTHWEST
   NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162103Z - 162300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
   ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES/NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO
   THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING SURFACE LOW/NEARBY
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. A DEEP MIXED CU
   FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AREAS SUCH AS FAR EASTERN WY...WHILE
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO OTHERWISE DESTABILIZE /AND RECOVER
   IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY DAY STORMS/ ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
   SD/NORTHWEST NEB. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO RISK. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   42550023 42170066 42220411 45120581 45780258 44310129
               43550012 42550023 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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