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Mesoscale Discussion 1020
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0432 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 303...

   VALID 162132Z - 162230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 303 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...VOLATILE TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL
   AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE MO RIVER.

   DISCUSSION...THE 19Z OAX RAOB DISPLAYED AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE 4200 J PER KG WITH A VERY LARGE LOOPING
   HODOGRAPH SUPPORTING 500 J PER KG EFFECTIVE SRH.  RADAR DATA HAS
   SHOWN THE STANTON COUNTY TORNADIC SUPERCELL CYCLE WITH PEAK
   LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES /70-80 KT/ SUPPORTING HIGH
   PROBABILITIES FOR AN INTENSE TORNADO.  TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
   THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN IA WITHIN A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  CURRENT THINKING IS LONG TRACK INTENSE TORNADOES
   /RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE FOR AN EF3+ INTENSITY TORNADO/ WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND
   INTO WRN IA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   ..SMITH.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42129713 42309639 42249613 42109605 41969621 41879694
               42129713 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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