Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1020
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1020 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN PA...WRN NJ...NRN DELMARVA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142308Z - 150000Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
   HOUR...OVERALL SVR THREAT IS LOW WITH NO WATCH ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   MOVING ACROSS ERN PA WITH A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
   CLUSTER. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS IS FAIRLY
   MARGINAL WITH RECENT DOX VAD SAMPLING ONLY 28 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
   BETTER SHEAR LIKELY EXISTS A BIT FARTHER N ACROSS FAR SE PA WITH
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KT /NOT ENOUGH
   SCATTERERS EXIST FOR GOOD VAD DATA FROM DIX/. DOWNSTREAM
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO PRETTY MARGINAL WITH WEAK
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES KEEPING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG DESPITE
   WARM AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS. 

   THE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME COLD POOL AMALGAMATION HAS OCCURRED
   WITHIN THIS CLUSTER...SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FOR THE HALF HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC CONDITIONS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.
   STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER INTERSECTING THE SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARY MOVING WWD ACROSS FAR SE PA.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39377621 40207624 40957584 41267492 40837439 39407487
               38857544 38907606 39377621 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 15, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities