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Mesoscale Discussion 1021
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0834 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota into Minnesota... northwest
   Iowa...eastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 326...327...

   Valid 140134Z - 140230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 326, 327 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes continue to be
   possible across the watch area.

   DISCUSSION...The bulk of the storm activity has now consolidated
   into a QLCS, from southeast ND into eastern SD and far northeast NE.
   A very moist and unstable air mass remains ahead of these storms
   along and south of the warm front which exists across central MN.
   The air mass is also unstable in an elevated sense north of the
   boundary, with 40-50 kt 850 mb flow present. 

   The northern portion of the QLCS is a bit more favorably oriented
   relative to the deep-layer shear, and radar shows areas of rotation
   along the gust front. Strong to severe wind gusts and/or brief and
   likely weak tornadoes remain possible. 

   To the south, outflow appears to be surging well ahead of the main
   storm cores, but recent radar trends show an increasing hail threat,
   from near the Sioux Falls area southward into Nebraska. The 00Z OAX
   sounding shows a very unstable profile supportive of large hail. 

   Severe storms are expected to persist across the watch area for a
   few more hours. To the east of the watch, convective inhibition
   increases, and may result in weakening storms. Therefore, it is
   unclear if a new watch will be needed.

   ..Jewell.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   42289765 43489757 44159727 44729698 45099698 45539744
               46389868 46939907 47489852 47739789 47689621 47339456
               46859398 46029390 44849405 43669460 42869516 42409602
               42169659 42079700 42289765 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2017
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