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Mesoscale Discussion 1022
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162214Z - 162315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER
   90S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS HAVE
   YIELDED MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   ALONG A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND...DESPITE WEAK SHEAR WHICH WILL
   TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...PRECIP LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH
   STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  OVERALL...EXPECT THE SVR THREAT TO
   REMAIN ISOLATED AND THUS A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30540179 30300250 30400322 30580362 31050357 31570304
               32720229 32960183 32940156 32830114 32540076 31990069
               31500103 30540179 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2014
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