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Mesoscale Discussion 1023
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150049Z - 150145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST OVER PARTS OF WRN PA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  GIVEN THE
   ANTICIPATED SHORT DURATION OF THIS THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A NUMBER OF STORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST HALF
   HOUR...PERHAPS DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR BY A NUMBER OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.  THE
   00Z PIT SOUNDING SAMPLED A MOIST AND STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...PRIOR TO GRADUAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO
   NOCTURNAL COOLING AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  

   IN THE MEANTIME...PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL
   FOSTER PERIODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW
   WINDS...SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.  THIS THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN QUITE LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE AND A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..MEAD.. 06/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41118047 41178025 41087972 40957919 40757873 40247865
               39967897 39877944 39937991 40168025 40378043 40498048
               41118047 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2015
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