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Mesoscale Discussion 1023
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / FAR NERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162259Z - 170030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT
   WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER SERN MT AS STORMS MOVE NEWD INTO SOMEWHAT
   LARGER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE OVER SERN MT.

   DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM WRN SD
   INTO SERN MT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S.  SEVERAL INTENSIFYING
   STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN BIG HORN COUNTY MT WITHIN A MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C
   PER KM/.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
   STORM THREAT.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUST
   THREAT WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS
   EVENING BEFORE STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE MID-EVENING
   HOURS.  UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT LENDS
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEED FOR A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45480481 44180660 45440774 46530851 46980772 47260623
               47080538 46430458 45480481 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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