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   Mesoscale Discussion 1024
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...South-central Wisconsin...Northwest
   Illinois...Far Northeast Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141706Z - 141930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to develop this
   afternoon across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The
   stronger thunderstorms could have a potential for isolated large
   hail and wind damage. Weather watch issuance may be needed across
   the region as storms intensify and increase in coverage.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
   in place across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Surface
   dewpoints are maximized into the lower to mid 70s F from central
   Missouri northward into western Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
   Surface temperatures have warmed into the 85 to 90 F range along the
   moist corridor which is contributing to moderate instability. The
   RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
   addition, the WSR-88D VWPs at Davenport, IA and Lincoln, IL show
   unidirectional wind profiles with some speed shear from just above
   the surface into the mid-levels. This is resulting in about 30 kt of
   0-6 km shear which will support an isolated severe threat this
   afternoon. Although deep-layer shear appears marginal for
   supercells, organized multicell clusters should be accompanied by
   storms that could produce isolated large hail and wind damage.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40269020 40948914 41278812 41618740 42358729 43908771
               44768842 44988907 44799008 44269062 43009137 41359285
               39969246 40019105 40269020 

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