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Mesoscale Discussion 1025
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 303...

   VALID 162350Z - 170045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 303 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A DISCRETE SUPERCELL OVER CNTRL NEB WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
   EWD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT.  CONDITIONAL
   PROBABILITIES FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE OVER
   THE NEXT HR OR TWO -- PROVIDED THE STORM REMAINS STEADY-STATE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY
   OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR THE LOUP/GARFIELD COUNTY LINE IN CNTRL
   NEB.  23Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY HAS LARGELY BECOME DIFFUSE AS SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE
   SOUTH OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF NEB.  RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 68-72 DEG F RANGE RESIDE TO THE E AND SE OF THE
   STORM.  AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE AREA OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   INVOF US 281...THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND EXTREME CAPE SUGGEST THE
   PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO WILL INCREASE.

   ..SMITH.. 06/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41869947 42219840 42079795 41769805 41729929 41869947 

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