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Mesoscale Discussion 1025
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MD...NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150602Z - 150800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ESEWD ACROSS PARTS
   OF MD AND INTO NRN VA AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AND MAY POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
   CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER-70S SFC DEWPOINTS...NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS
   BEEN RELATIVELY LIMITED -- SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   S OF LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION SPREADING ESEWD FROM S-CNTRL PA.
   THE LWX VWP SAMPLES AROUND 30-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR THAT MAY MAINTAIN
   OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
   SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND
   GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MESO-GAMMA-SCALE
   CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO SUSTAINED CONVECTION -- E.G. THAT WHICH IS
   CROSSING INTO FREDERICK COUNTY MD. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
   AS MODEST NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION CONTINUE. ONLY MODEST
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE IAD 00Z RAOB AND ASSOCIATED
   WEAK DCAPE...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD
   MITIGATE A GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39507813 39597681 39447607 39107623 39087745 39297810
               39507813 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2015
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