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Mesoscale Discussion 1025
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1025
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of VA/NC/SC/TN/GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141717Z - 141945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase into the afternoon
   hours, with the risk for a few strong storms capable of locally
   damaging wind gusts. Convection will lack organization, and Watch
   issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A broad area of partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies is
   permitting sufficient insolation amid a favorably moist boundary
   layer -- e.g. surface dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s --
   for increasing thunderstorm potential this afternoon. This will
   occur over a broad region from the central and southern Appalachians
   eastward across the Piedmont to the coastal plain where capping is
   minimal.

   Initial storm development may tend to be focused in the following
   regimes:
   (1) Diurnally enhanced orographic ascent over the higher terrain /
   Appalachians,
   (2) An axis of weak convergence across north-central VA,
   (3) Ascent preceding a weak, eastward-moving MCV across southeast
   VA,
   (4) A west-east frontal zone from northeast GA through northern SC
   into southeast NC where cumulus fields are swelling, and 
   (5) Along sea-breeze boundaries closer to the coast.

   Scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated, with storms slowly
   moving southward to eastward into the early evening hours. However,
   water vapor imagery does not depict any particularly salient
   midlevel perturbations enhancing deep ascent, though slightly
   cyclonic flow aloft and a related modestly tightened midlevel height
   gradient are supporting around 10-15 kt of 500-mb flow. This may be
   sufficient for a few loosely organized multicell clusters to evolve
   as cells merge, though the character of convection should be lacking
   any appreciable organization.

   Nevertheless, steepening low-level lapse rates will contribute to a
   few substantively robust convective cores, with downdrafts enhanced
   by water-loading processes associated with PW around 1.50-1.75
   inches. Isolated damaging wind gusts could accompany the most
   intense convection through the afternoon and into the early evening,
   before nocturnal gains in boundary-layer static stability occur.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
   GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

   LAT...LON   32948302 33388468 34498542 35638519 36098435 36558261
               37368057 38557915 38807750 37037622 35567632 34107794
               32778028 32948302 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2017
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