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Mesoscale Discussion 1026
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Missouri...South-central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141740Z - 142015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of the
   mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Isolated large hail and wind
   damage should be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance may be
   needed across the MCD area.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
   in place across the mid Mississippi Valley with surface dewpoints
   mostly in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong
   instability from central Missouri eastward into south-central
   Illinois where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE from 2500 to 3500 J/kg.
   As instability continues to slowly increase over the next hour or
   two, a severe threat is expected to develop. The WSR-88D VWP at St.
   Louis, MO shows a unidirectional wind profile above the surface with
   speed shear in the low to mid-levels. This along with steep
   low-level lapse rates should be favorable for wind damage with the
   more organized multicell clusters or line segments. Isolated large
   hail could also accompany the stronger thunderstorms.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39229388 39799209 39849021 39228820 38158813 37348936
               37539268 38309398 39229388 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2017
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