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Mesoscale Discussion 1026
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST ID...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 151841Z - 152015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST
   IDAHO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THIS
   EVENING. STRONG...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED CUMULUS
   DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST ID IN AN AIRMASS THAT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
   DESTABILIZE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS HAS
   RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG AND SOME ADDITIONAL
   DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH CONTINUED HEATING.
   ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WYOMING
   WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE FURTHER WEST. FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
   ENTERING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD.
   EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KT...IN ADDITION TO STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALBEIT HIGH-BASED GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID IN GUSTY
   WIND POTENTIAL AND SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST CELLS AS THEY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   FURTHER EAST...BETTER QUALITY/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN UPSLOPE
   SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS NOTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.
   HERE...SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OR IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE STATE
   FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
   SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAN FURTHER WEST...AND COUPLED WITH
   BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF THE TERRAIN AND SURFACE
   BOUNDARY...MAY ALLOW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF A TORNADO COMPARED TO
   FURTHER WEST.

   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WEATHER WATCH OR TWO MAY
   BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...SLC...PIH...

   LAT...LON   41290778 41861071 42251233 42761294 43081284 43591241
               43771163 43851146 44040981 44070892 43880733 43460601
               42770495 42190434 41660409 41110422 40990443 40970501
               41130681 41250756 41290778 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2015
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