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Mesoscale Discussion 1026
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 170047Z - 170145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL MAY
   CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

   DISCUSSION...STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN
   SD...NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SWD
   NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. WITH 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
   MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LIFTING OVER THE
   BOUNDARY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS WITH PRIMARILY A RISK
   FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST THROUGH 03Z. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF SVR TSTMS
   APPEARS MORE PROBABLE...THEN A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42949703 42989833 43079924 43439914 43579885 43959795
               44089748 44079703 44019687 43829669 43249669 42949703 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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