|Mesoscale Discussion 1026|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017
Areas affected...Missouri...South-central Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141740Z - 142015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of the
mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Isolated large hail and wind
damage should be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance may be
needed across the MCD area.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
in place across the mid Mississippi Valley with surface dewpoints
mostly in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong
instability from central Missouri eastward into south-central
Illinois where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE from 2500 to 3500 J/kg.
As instability continues to slowly increase over the next hour or
two, a severe threat is expected to develop. The WSR-88D VWP at St.
Louis, MO shows a unidirectional wind profile above the surface with
speed shear in the low to mid-levels. This along with steep
low-level lapse rates should be favorable for wind damage with the
more organized multicell clusters or line segments. Isolated large
hail could also accompany the stronger thunderstorms.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39229388 39799209 39849021 39228820 38158813 37348936
37539268 38309398 39229388
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