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Mesoscale Discussion 1027
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT / SWRN AND WRN ND / FAR NWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 170049Z - 170215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OT LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE N OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE
   SITUATED OVER ERN WY AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS HAS MAINTAINED
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-60 DEG RANGE OVER THE AREA.  OVERLAYING THE
   17/00Z RAP AND BIS RAOBS SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF MODERATE BUOYANCY IS
   LOCATED FROM SD NWWD INTO SWRN ND AND FAR E-CNTRL MT WITH OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS DENOTING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.  VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
   MODERATE TO STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT THE
   STRONGEST STORMS TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.  EXPECTING ONLY
   ISOLD STORM COVERAGE WITH AN ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/STRONG TO SEVERE
   WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER COOLS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...A GRADUAL WEAKENING
   IN STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45390295 46540336 47060428 47320569 47840552 48120372
               47880220 46980098 46010089 45570137 45390295 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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