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Mesoscale Discussion 1027
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WY...NRN UT...SE ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301...

   VALID 152229Z - 160000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
   UT...SE ID AND WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
   BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY MOIST
   AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WY EXTENDING WWD INTO SE ID AND NRN
   UT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F.
   THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF WW 301
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
   IN ADDITION...WIND PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
   WITH THE RIVERTON WSR-88D VWP SHOWING 45-50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
   COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE
   POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE COULD INCREASE IF MORE CELLS CAN INITIATE
   WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS PERSISTING INTO THE MID EVENING AS IS
   SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 06/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...GJT...TFX...SLC...PIH...
   BOI...LKN...

   LAT...LON   41020672 40970981 40820996 40781026 40751078 40581099
               40641145 40451186 40421214 40101213 39891239 39921309
               39841374 40711402 42441407 44301257 44941075 44450543
               42830405 41070395 41020672 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2015
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