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Mesoscale Discussion 1027
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1027
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern IL...IN...northern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141744Z - 142015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some increase in severe
   potential this afternoon. While Watch issuance is not likely, there
   is some possibility for the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   this afternoon -- especially if the risk for a more organized
   convective cluster with damaging-wind potential were to become

   DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to destabilize southwest of a
   convectively enhanced surface boundary analyzed from northern
   Indiana to northern KY. With temperatures on the warm side of this
   boundary rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s amid dewpoints in
   the lower 70s, MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg exists with little
   capping. Thunderstorm coverage will increase across the area during
   the next few hours -- initially focused around the aforementioned
   boundary with additional development to its southwest. Storms
   farther west may also spread into the region later this afternoon. 

   The lack of any salient midlevel impulses, and effective shear
   magnitudes under 25 kt, detract confidence in an organized
   convective risk evolving. However, with PW around 1.6-1.7 inches,
   water-loading and related enhanced downdrafts will have a tendency
   to support strong outflow winds. The potential for localized
   convective upscale growth associated with substantial thunderstorm
   coverage exists. While not immediately apparent, if a more organized
   convective cluster/cold pool were to evolve, a more concentrated
   area of damaging-wind potential could exist. Otherwise, isolated
   damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible
   through the early evening hours owing to the appreciable buoyancy.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39888944 40138962 40328913 40308801 40448707 41048660
               40888520 40048498 38888468 38098449 37888540 38938747
               39438850 39888944 

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