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Mesoscale Discussion 1028
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1028
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of OH/PA/WV/VA/KY/MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141820Z - 142045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for strong storms is increasing this afternoon,
   and isolated damaging wind gusts could occur. Watch issuance will
   not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Amid a moist and uncapped boundary layer, with
   dewpoints in the middle 60s to around 70F, thunderstorms will
   increase in number and intensity through the afternoon hours, as
   diabatic surface-layer heating continues. A diffuse, arching surface
   boundary from central PA to the Lake Erie shore between Erie PA and
   Cleveland OH will serve as both an eastern extent, and perhaps
   general zone, of thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, the lake breeze
   boundary, orographic circulations, an MCV tracking eastward into
   northwest OH, and baroclinic circulations on the eastern edge of
   multi-layered clouds from western/central OH into eastern KY --
   augmented by outflow -- will all serve as focused zones of storm
   intensification during the next few hours across the region. 

   Thunderstorms will slowly move eastward to southward through the
   early evening hours before weakening. Until then, PW around
   1.50-1.75 inches suggests that water-loading processes could support
   strong outflow winds as convection deepens amid 1000-2500 J/kg of
   MUCAPE. Weak deep shear will greatly limit convective organization,
   while midlevel lapse rates remain modest. These factors will
   substantially limit the severe risk. Regardless, isolated damaging
   wind gusts could occur.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38097983 36948155 36678269 36878370 37758356 38848254
               39578243 40408262 41208344 41528318 41438203 41468131
               41568043 41207992 39977903 39207884 38097983 

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