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Mesoscale Discussion 1028
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0837 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...SRN WI...NERN IA...EXTREME NRN IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 304...306...

   VALID 170137Z - 170300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 304...306...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
   TWO CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND
   SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH LOCAL
   NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES PRIOR TO 0230Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF
   SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND EXTREME NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

   DISCUSSION...WELL-DEVELOPED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS/DAMAGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT
   40 KNOTS ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND 3-4 MB/2 HR
   PRESSURE RISES. WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE ESE ALONG
   AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SERN WI AND
   EXTREME NRN IL. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HIGH-RES
   GUIDANCE...AND THUS A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO
   0230Z. IN ADDITION...A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 304...OR A NEW
   WW...MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE WFO DAVENPORT CWA. THE PRIMARY
   THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...WITH A
   CONTINUED RISK FOR QLCS TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST INTENSE
   BOWING SEGMENTS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
   OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE LINE.

   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42949703 42989833 43079924 43439914 43579885 43959795
               44089748 44079703 44019687 43829669 43249669 42949703 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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