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Mesoscale Discussion 1029
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1029
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...A small part of southwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141857Z - 142130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for at least isolated severe thunderstorms is
   increasing across a small part of southwest TX. While there is some
   uncertainty regarding anticipated severe coverage, the issuance of a
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends suggest towering cumulus over
   the Davis Mountains, where orographic circulations -- bolstered by
   strong insolation and steepening low-level lapse rates on the west
   edge of a north-south moisture gradient -- are ongoing. Surrounding
   areas of higher terrain, along with baroclinic circulations along
   the moisture-gradient zone, may also be foci for subsequent
   convective development. Convection will likely deepen into isolated
   thunderstorm activity in this regime during the next couple of
   hours, and then slowly drift eastward to southward through the
   evening hours. As this activity ingests increasingly buoyant inflow
   near/east of the moisture gradient -- characterized by 1500-3000
   J/kg of MLCAPE -- it will likely intensify with severe hail/wind
   potential increasing. The presence of 25-40 kt of effective shear
   could support supercell structures, with 7.5-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse
   rates bolstering updraft accelerations. Isolated significant severe
   hail could occur. However, water vapor imagery implies a dearth of
   deep ascent over the area, which suggests that storm coverage may be
   quite isolated. If the potential for more appreciable severe
   coverage were to increase, prospects for Watch issuance would also
   increase.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29790275 30000355 30400405 31070396 31410337 31490263
               31240215 30330191 29790275 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2017
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