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Mesoscale Discussion 1029
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0911 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB / WRN AND CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 303...305...

   VALID 170211Z - 170315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 303...305...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE CONVECTIVE MODE IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BECOME
   LESS CELLULAR AND MORE LINEAR THIS EVENING.  A DECREASING TORNADO
   THREAT IS FORECAST WHILE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER IA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS
   SHOWN CONSIDERABLE SURGING COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TRAILING
   EDGE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER ERN IA TOWARDS THE
   NEB/IA/SD BORDER.  ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER NERN NEB WILL LIKELY
   FURTHER PERPETUATE THE TREND TOWARDS UPSCALE GROWTH OVER NERN NEB
   WITH TIME.  ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OAX RAOB
   SHOWED A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...MODEST
   ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE REDUCTION IN THE
   LONGEVITY FOR SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRENDS OVER THE PAST
   HOUR...THINKING A CONTINUED EVOLUTION TO UPSCALE LINEAR MODES AND
   DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.  AS STORMS CONTINUE TO CONGEAL
   INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BECOME THE
   DOMINATE THREAT.  A REPLACEMENT OF THE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
   TORNADO WATCH 303 AND TORNADO WATCH 305 TO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES BEFORE WATCH
   303 EXPIRES.

   ..SMITH.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41569281 41469575 41839902 42289892 42939611 42199292
               42099285 41569281 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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