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Mesoscale Discussion 1029
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA AND SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 160930Z - 161130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE
   CENTER OF T.S. BILL MAY POSE A RISK FOR A SHORT-DURATION TORNADO
   DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
   MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND FAR WRN LA. IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...OUTER RAIN BANDS WELL NE OF THE CENTER OF T.S. BILL
   HAVE OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED SIGNS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
   ENHANCEMENTS...WITH A FEW SMALL DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS
   ADVANCING NWD/NNWWD OVER COASTAL SE TX/SRN LA. ONE
   RIGHT-MOVING...WEAKLY ROTATING CELL RECENTLY ADVANCED THROUGH ORANGE
   COUNTY TX...AND CELLS ALIGNING ALONG A CONVERGENCE BAND NEAR/S OF
   INTRACOASTAL CITY LA HAVE OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
   MEAN-FLOW-DEVIANT MOTION. THE LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IS A
   MANIFESTATION OF THE WEAKLY BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY
   INLAND...OWING TO THE LACK OF DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING.
   HOWEVER...HIGH THETA-E ASSOCIATED MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO
   EXTEND ONSHORE FROM THE WARM NORTH-GULF WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION STREAMING ONSHORE
   THROUGH THE LATE-OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.

   THE LCH AND POE VWPS SAMPLE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.S.
   BILL...SUPPORTING AROUND 20-25 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR...WITH SLIGHT
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT BOLSTERING LOW-LEVEL SRH. SUCH WIND PROFILES
   WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR WEAKLY ROTATING SHOWERS...AND A
   SHORT-DURATION TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
   HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING
   FOR THE TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED BY
   SUBSEQUENT MCD ISSUANCE BY AROUND 1230Z. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
   REGARDING T.S. BILL...PLEASE REFERENCE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE
   NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29519445 29749485 30129478 30629409 30619254 29899157
               29529178 29769346 29519445 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2015
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