MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 102151Z - 102315Z
   
   WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN/PERHAPS CENTRAL MO.
   
   TIED TO A LEADING MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND SOUTHEAST KS SURFACE
   LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST MO AS OF
   2145Z. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...A SPECIAL 19Z OBSERVED RAOB
   FROM SPRINGFIELD MO REFLECTED A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO...WITH 3500+ J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS UPSTREAM
   ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN MO...AND
   WITH A SEVERE RISK MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. THE RELATIVELY GREATEST
   CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY TORNADOES WOULD SEEMINGLY EXIST IN
   VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL MO WARM FRONT...HOWEVER UPSTREAM EXISTING
   CONVECTIVE MODE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY TEND TO CURB SUCH A
   THREAT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/10/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   36629418 37999467 39029363 38849111 36719116 36629418