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Mesoscale Discussion 1030
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161248Z - 161515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
   FOR TORNADOES THIS MORNING...RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BILL. THE
   ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL IS NEARING THE MIDDLE
   TX COAST AS OF 1240Z...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NWWD TODAY
   WHILE MAKING LANDFALL. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS AND INFRARED SATELLITE
   IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
   HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE SERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.S. BILL -- MAINLY OVER
   THE GULF WATERS. AS SUCH...INLAND PRECIPITATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   WIDESPREAD AMIDST THE BROAD NERN QUADRANT OF T.S. BILL. THIS MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN GENERALLY
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN BANDS...AS NWD FLUXES OF HIGH
   THETA-E AIR ACCOMPANIED BY MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS EXTEND FARTHER
   INLAND WITH TIME GIVEN THE MOTION OF T.S. BILL. AS SUCH...AN OVERALL
   UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING
   ACROSS THE REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE RELATED TO T.S. BILL
   EXISTS.

   MEANWHILE...REGIONAL VWPS AND 12Z RAOBS SAMPLE THE BROAD...STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.S. BILL...BETWEEN
   THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE TN
   VALLEY/PORTIONS OF THE SERN CONUS. GIVEN THE MODEST FORWARD MOTION
   OF T.S. BILL...THIS WILL SUSTAIN A FAIRLY BROAD...INLAND-ADVANCING
   ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH AROUND 20-30
   KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE VWPS/RAOBS -- LOCALLY
   ENHANCED WHERE BACKED/ELY SFC WINDS EXIST ALSO BOLSTERING LOW-LEVEL
   SRH -- THE RISK FOR A FEW MINI-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH THE MORNING AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING OCCURS IN THE
   MOIST-NEUTRAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED AT
   SOME TIME TODAY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUCH ISSUANCE MAY BE
   NECESSARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE 12Z RAOB AT LCH
   ALREADY SAMPLED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND IT MAY TAKE VERY
   LITTLE SFC HEATING FOR THE TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
   HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AND RELATED THETA-E DEFICITS AND
   INSUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF A GREATER TORNADO
   RISK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY -- ESPECIALLY IN ERN TX. AS SUCH...THE
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29249424 28729614 29159676 30409749 31119759 31729695
               31959516 31629363 30309232 29589258 29249424 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2015
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