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Mesoscale Discussion 1030
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1030
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Southwest Lower Michigan...Northern Indiana...Far
   Northeast Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142002Z - 142200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to develop across
   parts of southwest Lower Michigan, northern Indiana and far
   northeast Illinois. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be
   possible across the MCD area and weather watch issuance may be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass
   extending northward from the Ohio Valley into the southern Great
   Lakes where surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s and
   lower 70s F. This is contributing to moderate instability with
   MLCAPE values estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range.
   Instability will continue to increase across the southern Great
   Lakes over the next hour or two. In addition, forecast soundings
   across southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana show
   directional shear in the low to mid-levels with some speed shear in
   the mid-levels. This is creating enough deep-layer shear for
   organized severe multicells. As storms move into southwestern Lower
   Michigan and northern Indiana from the west, isolated large hail and
   wind damage will be possible with the stronger cells.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   42808389 41348443 40308572 40248714 41388785 42978780
               43768575 42808389 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2017
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