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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...
VALID 102238Z - 102345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 365 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHERN OK. SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO THE DFW METRO
AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.
QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/STEADILY
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX AT AROUND 40 KT...ROUGHLY
ABOUT 40 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN DFW SUBURBS AS OF 2230Z. WITH AN
ORGANIZING COLD POOL AND DOWNSTREAM CORRIDOR OF SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3000 J PER KG
MLCAPE/...CONTINUED LINE-EMBEDDED BOWING AND ASSOCIATED MAIN WIND
DAMAGE/PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED WHERE
THE CONVECTIVE LINE INTERCEPTS A SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING SHALLOW
BOUNDARY NOTED PER VOLUMETRIC RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE DFW METRO AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TX/TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN ISOLATED SOUTH OF
EXISTING WW 365 OWING TO CAPPING/SOUTHERN FRINGE OF FORCING ON THE
LARGE SCALE...WILL NEVERTHELESS CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH...BOTH ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY.
..GUYER.. 06/10/2009
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34309818 34779687 34159468 32269522 31469785 30430121
32959924 34309818
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