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Mesoscale Discussion 1031
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OHIO...NERN KY...WEST VIRGINIA...NRN/CNTRL
   VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF SERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SRN
   NEW JERSEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161615Z - 161815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.  TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR CONSOLIDATION INTO EVOLVING STORM
   CLUSTERS...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND
   THREAT THAT COULD NECESSITATE A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE
   CONTENT...WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
    THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO THE
   WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEAR LIKELY TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO
   WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

   IN THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY SHEARED WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ON
   THE ORDER OF 30 KT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND
   ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONGER
   ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR AT
   LEAST LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS THAT COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
   SEVERE LIMITS.  MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD SEEM
   TO HINGE ON CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO ONE OR MORE GROWING
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.  THIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING ACCOMPANYING ANY ONE OF A NUMBER OF SUBTLE
   PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING OR PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...
   ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   40147674 40047538 38837487 37787588 37198055 38108445
               39768387 39478018 40147674 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2015
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