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Mesoscale Discussion 1031
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN WI...ERN IA...AND NRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307...308...

   VALID 170440Z - 170545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   307...308...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING SEWD WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...BOWING LINE OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE E/ESE AT
   AROUND 40 KTS WITH A CONTINUED HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE. A SSWLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET AVERAGING 50 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR NWD INTO NRN IL/SRN WI WITH MUCAPE AVERAGING 1500
   TO 2500 J/KG. WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...THE LINE SHOULD
   REMAIN SEVERE THRU 08Z AND TRANSIENT AREAS OF ENHANCED BOWNG
   SEGMENTS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF QLCS TORNADOES. THIS IS MOST LIKELY
   ACROSS FAR SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE WARMER SFC TEMPS EXIST. WITH
   TIME...THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE /CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF
   EFT/ MAY REQUIRE A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION OF WW ACROSS THE CHICAGO
   METROPOLITAN AREA. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LOCAL EXTENSION
   WILL BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MILWAUKEE AREA DUE TO SSE
   WINDS AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43968972 43928921 43538873 42548854 41528827 41138822
               41118946 41178999 41169182 41219227 41699220 42569039
               43968972 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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