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Mesoscale Discussion 1031
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1031
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...West Texas...Far Southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142033Z - 142300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop across parts of west Texas and
   far southwest Oklahoma late this afternoon. Large hail and wind
   damage will be possible as cells initiate and increase in coverage.
   Weather watch may be needed once it becomes more certain where and
   when cells will initiate.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
   place across much of Texas with surface dewpoints in west-central
   Texas generally in the 60s F. This combined with very hot surface
   temperatures in the mid to upper 90s F has resulted in strong
   instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg
   range across the MCD area. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at
   Lubbock, TX and Frederick, OK show directional and speed shear in
   the low to mid-levels which is resulting in 30 to 40 kt of 0-6 km
   shear. With the strong instability in place, the amount of shear
   should be sufficient for supercell formation.  Convection is
   forecast to initiate and increase in coverage late this afternoon
   into early this evening. The latest HRRR seems reasonable which
   initiates cells by 23Z from near Lubbock south-southwestward to near
   Midland. This activity should spread southeastward into areas along
   the eastern edge of the Caprock and into the Low Rolling Plains
   where a threat for large hail and wind damage will be possible.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33980147 32720257 32000306 31360299 30860220 31180100
               33419879 34419900 34789985 34530069 33980147 

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