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Mesoscale Discussion 1032
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SRN MT...WRN/CNTRL WY...FAR NERN ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161723Z - 161930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
   ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
   OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORT. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT MORE
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS GRADUALLY OCCURRING ALONG THE
   ABSAROKA RANGE AND VICINITY IN NWRN WY. AS A LEAD IMPULSE HAS
   DEPARTED THE REGION TO THE EAST...WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A
   FOLLOWING PERTURBATION IS LIKELY AIDING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY EDGING SWD
   OVER CNTRL WY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER S/E
   FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

   WITH SEASONABLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SURMOUNTING THE
   AREA...DIURNAL HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR A FEW VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS. INDEED...MLCAPE OF AROUND 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE
   REALIZED. 40-50 KTS OF 700-500-MB WLY FLOW WILL YIELD ORGANIZATION
   IN STRONGER CONVECTION...AND MID-LEVEL ROTATION OF ANY CELLS WILL
   ENHANCE THE HAIL/WIND THREAT. AS STORMS DEVELOP/ORGANIZE FARTHER
   EAST ALONG THE FRONT/CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE POINT OVER FAR ERN WY/NWRN
   NEB/SWRN SD...THERE SHOULD BE A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN THE SEVERE
   THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. FARTHER WEST
   /ACROSS THE CURRENT MCD AREA/...LESS MOISTURE AND MORE DISORGANIZED
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE SPATIAL SCALE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
   THUS...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA...BUT
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...

   LAT...LON   44101116 44491183 44811241 45301274 45621226 45751163
               45771081 45581024 44850895 44050858 42620759 42180775
               41760825 41630916 41881000 42321042 42841061 43551095
               44101116 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2015
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