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Mesoscale Discussion 1032
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1032
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern/southern
   KS...northern/western/central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142037Z - 142300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for severe-thunderstorm
   potential into the evening hours. Prospects for sustained deep
   convection with severe hail/wind potential are presently unclear,
   but the conditional potential will exist, and Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance may eventually become necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Amid a moist boundary layer characterized by surface
   dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s, diabatic surface-layer
   heating has contributed to strong diurnal gains in buoyancy.
   Modifications to the 17Z Lamont OK sounding for ongoing surface
   conditions suggest 2500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the region, with
   substantial erosion to MLCINH accompanying the base of a
   moist-boundary-layer-overlying EML. In fact, visible satellite
   imagery is suggesting slight agitation to cumulus fields across
   south-central and central KS -- i.e., near a northeast-southwest-
   oriented surface front marking the west edge of the strongest
   buoyancy. This boundary extends from its intersection with a
   diffuse, frontolytic, west-east outflow boundary near/north of the
   Topeka KS area southwestward into east-central parts of the TX
   Panhandle area. Baroclinic circulations along the front and decaying
   outflow boundary could be foci for surface-based convective
   development during the next several hours.

   However, the severe risk is conditional on surface-based convective
   initiation and sustenance. Surface observations suggest only weakly
   convergent wind fields accompanying the aforementioned boundaries.
   Furthermore, notable midlevel drying in the wake of a shortwave
   trough is evident per water vapor imagery, with ongoing midlevel
   height rises. This reflects air with a history of subsidence, which
   may be associated with thermodynamic conditions proving hostile for
   sustained storm development -- i.e. both associated with localized
   boosts in static stability in the thermal profile aloft and abundant
   dry-air-entrainment potential with incipient updrafts.

   If convection were to develop (perhaps following repeated and
   spatially focused pulsations of shallow convective plumes), the
   aforementioned substantial buoyancy may facilitate the development
   of vigorous updrafts. Moreover, with 25-40 kt of effective shear,
   southward- to southeastward-moving supercells and multicell clusters
   could evolve through the evening hours. Severe hail/wind would be
   the primary concerns with this activity. Also, the overlap of
   pre-existing vertical vorticity and substantive low-level buoyancy
   on either side of the outflow boundary could foster very low tornado
   potential in northeast KS. Some heat-burst potential may accompany
   decaying convection later this evening (accompanied by strong
   surface winds and rapid warming/drying of the boundary layer) --
   especially in OK where midlevel lapse rates will be steepest in
   association with the largest DCAPE.

   Again, any severe risk is highly conditional, and prospects for
   sustained storm formation -- if any -- are highly unclear. If it
   were to appear a sustained severe risk were to eventually evolve,
   Watch issuance may possibly become necessary.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   34889980 35679964 38059809 39469634 39499535 38749475
               36799517 34899766 34489890 34459945 34889980 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2017
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