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Mesoscale Discussion 1033
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Wisconsin...northeast
   Illinois...and lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...330...

   Valid 142159Z - 142330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328, 330

   SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong/severe storms will continue
   east across Watches 328 and 330 this evening. Storms currently
   crossing Lake Michigan may pose a threat of locally gusty winds and
   marginally severe hail across parts of Lower Michigan. However,
   downstream watch issuance is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous strong/severe storms have evolved eastward
   across Watches 328 and 330 this afternoon, driven largely by merged
   cold pools and advancing outflow boundaries. In pockets where the
   air mass has not been convectively overturned, a warm/moist boundary
   layer will maintain a threat of strong/damaging winds and marginally
   severe hail. However, as storms progress east, they will become
   increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow (and related
   deep-layer shear) to the west. In turn, as storms reach western
   Lower Michigan, they will probably have weakened sufficiently to
   preclude downstream watch issuance. Nonetheless, MLCAPE around
   1000-1500 J/kg may encourage a few loosely organized cores capable
   of gusty winds and marginally severe hail this evening. Convective
   trends will be monitored, however, in case storms exhibit greater
   overall organization than is currently expected.

   ..Picca.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43418836 44828758 45188677 45138567 44018488 42278475
               41338535 40458617 40478742 41028854 41498870 42158865
               42038864 43418836 

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