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Mesoscale Discussion 1033
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N IL...FAR E IA/S WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309...

   VALID 170841Z - 170945Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WITH AROUND 50-KT WIND GUSTS PERSISTING WITHIN THE REMNANT
   QLCS OVER E IA...AND DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF
   AN MCS NOW OVER LK MI...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 10Z.

   DISCUSSION...QLCS FROM DUBUQUE TO HENRY COUNTY IA HAS MAINTAINED
   STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS /REF 51 KT KAWG AT 0815Z AND 47 KT KIOW
   AT 0807Z/. ALTHOUGH OVERALL LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND
   TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN AREA IN ITS WAKE HAS BEEN DECREASING...AIR
   MASS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE IS AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. DVN VWP
   DATA INDICATES A LARGE HODOGRAPH WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT.
   THIS COULD FOSTER BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT GUST
   INTENSITY TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW BEYOND WW 309 GIVEN FAVORABLE
   ALIGNMENT OF THE QLCS RELATIVE TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   42249061 42589017 42828908 42728797 42388767 41898740
               41548735 41078803 40928992 40989067 41159105 41229113
               42249061 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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