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Mesoscale Discussion 1033
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN WY...WRN NEB...FAR NERN
   CO...AND SWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 161912Z - 162115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. WW
   ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS THE MCD AREA AS OF
   19Z...WITH A FURTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT PRESENT...A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW
   PRESSURE HAVE MATERIALIZED...ONE ACROSS FAR ERN WY AND ANOTHER JUST
   EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THESE LOWS...AS
   WELL AS ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST AND WARM
   FRONT/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK ASCENT
   FROM A DIFFUSE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY. ADDITIONALLY...DEVELOPING CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   WRN WY SHOULD PROGRESS NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT INTO CNTRL/SERN WY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

   IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...SFC
   TEMPS IN THE 70S AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S WILL
   SUPPORT MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
   FURTHERMORE...RESPECTABLE 500-MB FLOW OF 40-50 KTS WILL PROMOTE
   SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION FOR A SUSTAINED LARGE HAIL/STRONG
   WIND THREAT ONCE MORE ROBUST CELLS DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
   FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   MCD AREA...WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY MORE BACKED
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT/WARM
   FRONT.

   WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z AS ACTIVITY INCREASES.
   OVER TIME THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AMALGAMATE INTO A COUPLE
   OF E/SEWD-PROGRESSING COMPLEXES...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
   TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42550758 43010799 43340802 43450769 43300608 43240481
               43360433 43550371 44030324 44190285 44210237 44030181
               43730153 43310138 42220150 41240161 40830177 40570242
               40650385 40990517 41540618 42550758 

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Page last modified: June 16, 2015
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