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Mesoscale Discussion 1035
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WY...SWRN SD...THE WRN NEB
   PANHANDLE...NRN CO...AND FAR NERN UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...304...

   VALID 162253Z - 170030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   303...304...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 303
   AND 304. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
   FOR PORTIONS OF SERN WY AND THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...AMIDST A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC
   COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER WY...AND ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NRN CO. A BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM S-CNTRL
   WY...EWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN SD. LIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE ALOFT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   SATELLITE LOOPS HAS ALSO ENCOURAGED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA.

   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S S OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
   IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HAVE ASSISTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY
   REMAINS CONFINED TO THE S OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH WLY LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT PER AREA VWPS...EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO GENERALLY REMAIN
   SUPERCELLULAR...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS WY
   IN THE PAST HOUR. ACROSS PORTIONS SERN WY AND THE WRN NEB
   PANHANDLE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE SLY...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
   AROUND 100 M2/S2 PER THE KCYS VWP AND RAP MESOANALYSIS COULD SUPPORT
   A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN THE SHORT-TERM GIVEN SUPERCELL
   STORMS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA.

   ..GLEASON.. 06/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

   LAT...LON   43030288 40970275 40940218 39570214 39520370 39690597
               40120714 40170900 40550912 40620992 40990996 41040906
               42210901 43320982 43490976 43510945 43510871 43610772
               43750619 44200498 44170247 44460235 44510196 44040196
               43680205 43060209 43030288 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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