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Mesoscale Discussion 1035
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1035
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0611 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of Missouri and southern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329...

   Valid 142311Z - 150015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms across northeastern Missouri
   and western Illinois will likely progress southeast over the next
   few hours, with an attendant threat of gusty, damaging winds and
   perhaps marginally severe hail. Farther southwest, confidence in
   thunderstorm development over the next few hours has decreased.
   However, storms may develop across far western portions of the watch
   later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms continue to evolve near the
   Mississippi River this afternoon, aided by large-scale ascent from a
   weak passing impulse. Ongoing convective development and merging
   cold pools may yield a stronger southeastward push of convection
   over the next few hours, with an attendant threat of damaging winds
   and severe hail. Farther southwest, satellite trends suggest
   convective initiation appears less probable, as the cumulus field
   has thinned on the backside of the aforementioned shortwave trough.
   Therefore, the potential for severe convection across much of the
   SGF CWA may be waning. Across northwestern portions of the watch,
   cumulus development has remained a little more robust and high-res
   guidance suggests more vigorous convection may develop later this
   evening across western Kansas and northwest Missouri, perhaps in
   response to a weak upstream impulse. As such convective trends will
   be monitored here for potential new watch issuance.

   ..Picca.. 06/14/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38139534 39229492 39959404 40209200 40199031 40028894
               39288833 38528848 38058990 37669254 37749513 38139534 

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