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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK INTO MUCH
OF AR/NORTHWEST LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...366...368...
VALID 110139Z - 110245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
365...366...368...CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 365/368 CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z/07Z. SEVERE TSTM
WATCH 366 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND/OR BE CANCELLED BY
03Z EXPIRATION.
ACROSS NORTHERN AR...PRONOUNCED ASYMMETRIC SQUALL LINE WITH NORTH
PERIPHERY EMBEDDED BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AT
AROUND 50 KT ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS MCS/BOW MAY GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER A SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
AR...HOWEVER THE WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND/PERHAPS SOME HAIL THREAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT FORT SMITH WSR-88D DERIVED VWP WINDS
SAMPLE A 50 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 1-2 KM IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE
OF THIS QUASI-LINEAR MCS.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...A MORE EXTENSIVE WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH
HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE IN THE DFW METRO AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY PROGRESS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX VICINITY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. OWING TO THE WELL-ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS MCS AND EXISTING
STRONG COLD POOL/RISE-FALL PRESSURE COUPLET...SURFACE DATA TRENDS
AHEAD OF THE MCS REFLECT A SUSTENANCE-FAVORABLE TREND OF AN
INCREASINGLY EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE
ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS AND A DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISTINCT DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL
THREAT TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION. ANOTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTM/SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...POSSIBLY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR/TEMPLE VICINITY
THROUGH MID EVENING.
..GUYER.. 06/11/2009
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 36339347 36349151 35819114 34429223 32339442 31309899
32779768 34619465 36339347
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