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Mesoscale Discussion 1035
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF E MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171104Z - 171230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LONE SUPERCELL N OF MLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE NEAR-TERM. PROBABLE
   WEAKENING LATER THIS MORNING AND LACK OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE
   SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS MOISTURE PLUME
   /CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/...A LONE
   SUPERCELL AROUND 25 N MLS HAS BEEN DRIFTING NWD. THIS STORM APPEARS
   TO BE DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE ID SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
   ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LEE SURFACE
   CYCLONE OVER SE MT. BLX VWP DATA HAS INDICATED PRONOUNCED SPEED
   SHEAR AOA 3 KM AGL...WHICH FAVORS HAIL GROWTH AND PROBABLE SEVERE
   HAIL PER WDSS-II MESH ALGORITHM. WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME...BULK OF
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT 800-700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS
   MORNING...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE AIR MASS FOR ADDITIONAL
   SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47500574 47100535 46750546 46680661 47100781 47690818
               48000786 48120727 48080661 47500574 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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