Mesoscale Discussion 1035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017
Areas affected...Portions of Missouri and southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329...
Valid 142311Z - 150015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms across northeastern Missouri
and western Illinois will likely progress southeast over the next
few hours, with an attendant threat of gusty, damaging winds and
perhaps marginally severe hail. Farther southwest, confidence in
thunderstorm development over the next few hours has decreased.
However, storms may develop across far western portions of the watch
later this evening.
DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms continue to evolve near the
Mississippi River this afternoon, aided by large-scale ascent from a
weak passing impulse. Ongoing convective development and merging
cold pools may yield a stronger southeastward push of convection
over the next few hours, with an attendant threat of damaging winds
and severe hail. Farther southwest, satellite trends suggest
convective initiation appears less probable, as the cumulus field
has thinned on the backside of the aforementioned shortwave trough.
Therefore, the potential for severe convection across much of the
SGF CWA may be waning. Across northwestern portions of the watch,
cumulus development has remained a little more robust and high-res
guidance suggests more vigorous convection may develop later this
evening across western Kansas and northwest Missouri, perhaps in
response to a weak upstream impulse. As such convective trends will
be monitored here for potential new watch issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38139534 39229492 39959404 40209200 40199031 40028894
39288833 38528848 38058990 37669254 37749513 38139534