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Mesoscale Discussion 1036
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0602 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162302Z - 170030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEVERE
   HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE ONGOING STORMS SPREADING SEWD THROUGH
   S-CNTRL MT THIS EVENING.  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
   THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS WHICH INITIATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
   HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL MT HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SEWD TOWARD BILLINGS.  THE MOST INTENSE STORM
   AS OF 2245Z WAS LOCATED OVER E-CNTRL STILLWATER CO WITH
   EXTRAPOLATION TAKING IT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BILLINGS BETWEEN
   2330-0000Z.  THIS STORM IS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH
   HAIL UP TO GOLF-BALL SIZE RECENTLY REPORTED AS IT PASSED THROUGH
   RAPELJE. 

   THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST
   INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION OF OTHER STORMS THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
   SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL MT.  SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS PRIOR TO STORMS GRADUALLY
   WEAKENING BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..MEAD.. 06/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45100999 45850999 46440935 46430819 46070716 45520698
               45110743 45000802 44990856 45100999 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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