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Mesoscale Discussion 1037
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND EAST TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 302...

   VALID 162338Z - 170115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 302 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX.

   DISCUSSION...BASED ON THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL
   HURRICANE CENTER AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST
   COUPLE OF HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BILL IS LOCATED ABOUT 45 STATUTE
   MILES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF PORT O'CONNOR. SEVERAL RAINBANDS ARE
   PRESENT WITHIN 100 STATUTE MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
   WITH ANOTHER LESS DEFINED RAINBAND ABOUT 180 STATUTE MILES TO THE
   NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF A
   VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ESTIMATED
   TO BE FROM 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF ECNTRL TX ACCORDING
   SATELLITE DERIVED PW DATA. IN ADDITION...THE RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED
   ALONG THE NWRN AND WRN EDGE OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET IS CREATING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EVIDENT ON
   THE HOUSTON WSR-88D VWP...FOR ROTATING STORMS. CELLS THAT ROTATE MAY
   BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   AS TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVES NNWWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN ISOLATED
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
   CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINDANDS OR WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE
   BETWEEN THE RAINBANDS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 06/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   28719609 28749704 29109796 30259844 31369869 32519787
               33009544 32539385 30949335 29859355 28719609 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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