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Mesoscale Discussion 1037
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171728Z - 171830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN LOWER MI OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR...BUT LIMITED TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EXTEND OF THE THREAT
   SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL LIKELY BE UNNECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEAL
   CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE AREA...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE ONGOING CONVECTION
   CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO LK HURON...SOME INCREASE IN CU -- PER WV
   IMAGERY -- IS INDICATED ACROSS THE THUMB REGION AND SWD TOWARD DET
   ATTM.  WINDS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI HAVE VEERED OVER THE
   PAST HOUR TO SWLY/WSWLY...WHILE MORE SSWLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE STATE -- THUS YIELDING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE.  THUS -- POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   EVIDENT...WITH SEVERE RISK BOLSTERED BY FAVORABLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW
   ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.  THAT SAID...EXPECT THE RISK TO REMAIN
   SHORT-LIVED...AS ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WOULD MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO
   LAKE HURON/SRN ONTARIO.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...

   LAT...LON   44008259 43588224 42828226 41718329 41768392 42748359
               43098337 43648346 44158296 44008259 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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