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Mesoscale Discussion 1037
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1037
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kansas and northern/central
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 150254Z - 150430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms re-developing across northern Missouri and
   eastern Kansas this evening may pose the potential for a few
   damaging gusts and instances of large hail. Trends are being
   monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms have developed
   west of a decaying MCS this evening, and a couple of these cells
   possess relatively deep cores, with 9-km CAPPI reflectivity upwards
   of 50 dBZ or so. The 00Z TOP sounding sampled an uncapped
   environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture and steep
   mid-level lapse rates. While nocturnal cooling has decreased
   mixed-layer CAPE somewhat, modified soundings still suggest upwards
   of 3000 J/kg and little inhibition is present. In turn, weak
   large-scale forcing for ascent should be sufficient to maintain
   developing convection into early tonight. Deep-layer shear is
   relatively weak, but thermodynamic profiles would support a few
   damaging gusts and perhaps large hail in association with stronger,
   organized updrafts. Therefore, trends are being monitored for
   continued robust development, which would necessitate watch
   issuance.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38819652 39829514 40719352 40419224 39529188 38629191
               38309333 38289539 38599630 38819652 

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