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Mesoscale Discussion 1038
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/NRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171738Z - 171915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WRN NY
   AND VICINITY...WITH WW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS
   DEVELOPING/MOVING ACROSS LK ONTARIO AND ADJACENT WRN NY...THROUGH A
   MOIST AIRMASS THAT CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE.  WHILE MORE
   WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EXIT SRN ONTARIO
   AND MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING -- WITH A WW
   LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED...ISOLATED STORMS ONGOING ATTM COULD ALSO POSE
   ISOLATED SEVERE RISK GIVEN THE BACKGROUND KINEMATIC AND
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
   EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH RESPECT TO APPROPRIATE TIMING FOR
   EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43547592 43087585 41617680 41477872 41738035 42107991
               42367933 42707878 43297878 43187699 43547592 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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