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Mesoscale Discussion 1038
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of south-central Kentucky...Middle
   Tennessee...northwest Alabama and northern/central Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151636Z - 151830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
   through this afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and large
   hail.  Trends will be monitored for the possibility of a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were located along a persistent outflow
   boundary from northwest Mississippi northeast into Middle
   Tennessee/south-central Kentucky at of 1630z. This boundary, and
   associated thunderstorm activity, will continue to move
   south/southeast into a moist and increasingly unstable air mass
   characterized by moderate/strong surface-based buoyancy but modest
   deep-layer shear. Latest visible satellite imagery shows increasing
   surface-based instability and towering cumulus both along and in
   advance of the boundary-associated storms.  An increase in storm
   coverage and intensity is expected over the next few hours with a
   primary risk for damaging winds due to water loading of updrafts. 
   The degree of instability suggests that isolated instances of large
   hail will also be possible.  Despite the weak vertical shear and
   overall slow storm motions, some potential exists for storm outflows
   to congeal with time, resulting in more concentrated corridors of
   damaging wind potential.

   Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a severe
   thunderstorm watch may be needed if confidence increases in the
   coverage of severe wind/hail risk.

   ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/15/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34259059 35198833 36058710 36508657 36858597 36648558
               35748560 34458631 34078671 33318766 32878865 32758966
               32819025 33039077 33459086 33839106 34259059 

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