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Mesoscale Discussion 1038
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 305...

   VALID 170034Z - 170200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 305 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 305.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A
   CONFLUENCE LINE ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB. PAIRED
   SUPERCELLS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN CHERRY COUNTY NEB WILL CONTINUE
   TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THE SHORT-TERM...ALONG WITH A
   POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS SURGES
   SWD/SEWD. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED FROM WRN LINCOLN COUNTY
   NEB SWWD TO DUNDY COUNTY...AND OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM
   SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 305 WITHIN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE NEB SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 DEG C/KM...AND A VEERING
   WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM THIS SOUNDING
   IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE 1500-2000 J/KG ESTIMATED FROM RAP
   MESOANALYSIS. REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MCD AREA...WITH AN
   ASSOCIATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE 0-1 KM SRH
   ESTIMATED BY THE KLNX VWP WAS AROUND 200-225 M2/S2 AS OF
   0015Z...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL GIVEN SLY/SELY SFC WINDS VEERING TO WLY AT
   MIDLEVELS.

   ..GLEASON.. 06/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40320204 41030204 41000256 42030266 42950275 43980201
               44140110 44159995 43909942 42999924 41059920 40340008
               40320204 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2015
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